Runoff Stochastic Generation And Mid-long Term Optimized Operation Of Cascaded Hydroelectric Plant

As the input of the hydropower system, runoff is very important to make the generationplan and the optimal operation decision of the hydropower station. If the length of the runoffseries is not long enough, its Variety can not be describe clearly, so runoff stochasticgeneration which is a runoff generation method based on the real data and represents thestochastic characteristic of the runoff series can be widely used in the water resourceevaluation, making the operation chart of hydropower stations, selecting the reservoirparameter, forecasting the flow, and so on.By the extension of hydropower system, multidimention problem is the bottle-nec ofoptimal operation. The reduction of dimention numbers and the efficiency is a importantproblem of reservoir operation. Both Dynamic Programming (DP) and Progressive OptimalityAlgorithm (POA) are effective, but they also have the advantages and disadvantages. In thispaper, firstly a mixed stochastic model is proposed for the runoff simulation of the cascadedhydroelectric plant on Wujiang River, and then a optimized method combining DP and POAis used to do some research on the mid-long term optimized operation considering the realand simulative runoff series. The main works are listed as following:1. A mixed stochastic model of combining the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA)model and the disaggregation model is proposed for the runoff simulation of the cascadedhydroelectric plant on Wujiang River. The analysis and test of the simulative runoff series areestablished and the result shows that the parameters are reasonable and the mixed model issuitable for the stochastic generation of multi-station streamflow.2. An algorithm combining DP and Modified Adaptive POA is presented to the operationproblem of the hydropower systems of cascaded reservoir on Wujiang River, which takes themaximum energy, the maximum stored energy of the whole series with a minimum energyconstraint and the maximization of minimal mean power as the objective for every time stepseparately and takes the real and simulative runoff series into account. The results are used tomake the operation chart of the hydropower systems.3. Taking the TOU (Time-of-Use) price and the price difference of the hydropowerstations into account, a model which takes the maximum generation benefit as the objective ispresented. The results show that different coefficients of price will obviously affect thegeneration benefit and operation mode of cascade hydropower stations. Finally, a summary is given and some problems to be further studied are discussed.