Risk Analysis Method And Information Systems Of Risk Evaluation For Arch Dam

The advantage of arch dam is comprehensive approbatory as the primary model in the word. From last century, the direction of arch dam construction is higher and wider along with the development of experience and technology. Design permissibility stress is enhanced and request of dam site landform is relaxant. Even many high arch dams have be built in incompetent landform.China has the most arch dams in the world, arch dams act important part in the development of the national economy, but arch dams make against the economy and the lives of downriver people. As the consciousness of welfare have been advanced, traditional structural analysis method didn't satisfy the need of arch dams safety management. Consequently, risk analysis method is introduced to arch dams safety management.In recent years dam risk analysis and management established on the basis of the probability of dam failure and the estimation of loss of life and economic. The theories and applications of dam risk analysis are studied in this paper on the base of predecessors' achievement. The paper advanced the method in the probability account of dam-break, made use of HEC-RAS model to Dam-break flood analysis and discussed the loss of life and economic due to dam-break, and built appraise model based on BP Nerve Net.As the development of information technology, it takes important part in modern management. The thesis is in the study on risk analysis method in each basic theories with important link, combine the information processing technique, study to develop the information system of the risk analysis method for arch dam. This thesis outlines the system need analysis, the system collectivity design and the system database design, and brings out the developing means, process, frame and preparation tasks for constructing an information system. The information system could appraise the risk of dam-break fleetly and exactly, forecast the site, area and intension of floodwater. It is beneficial to making secure programs, reconstructive scheme and relievable policy, sequentially reducing the loss and accelerating the development of society and economy.