Study Of Environment Risk Assessment On Tanker Oil Spilling In Ningbo-Zhoushan Harbor

With the rapid growth of China's economic construction, the development of Ningbo-Zhoushan port has been significantly improving at the same time. In the year of 2006,the cargo throughput of Ningbo-Zhoushan port reached 423.87 million tons,being next only to Shanghai port and ranking second in Chinese mainland and the fourth in the world; besides, its container throughput was 7.14 million TEUs, ranking fourth throughout the Chinese mainland; moreover, it had a throughput of 20.66 million people.With China's sustained and rapid development of the national economy, the growing demand for oil, the adjustment of the national energy policy and strategic security needs and, the complement of the oil underground pipelines in Nanjing, the strategic oil reserves in Lanshan, Ningbo, and a large number of dangerous goods terminals in Daxie island, the Ningbo-Zhoushan port's throughput of dangerous goods and the number of oil ships that are getting in and out of the port have been continuously increasing and,the ships traffic density and incidents probability have been added as well.Moreover,with the large-scale and specialization,the potential risk of pollution from ships will be growing. Once the oil spill accident happens to a tanker in a large scale,it would inevitably bring serious damage to the ecological environment,the economic development and people's health,directly affecting the social development of Ningbo-Zhoushan.On this situation,this paper aimed at the tanker arriving at Ningb-Zhoushan Port. It first introduced the basic situations of Ningbo-Zhoushan sea area,and then estimated the incidents probability of large-scale oil spill risk accidents by risk probability theory. The analysation of the reason why the oil spill risk accident would happen was an important component of the study. The paper focused on four factors that impact on the the oil spill risk accidents:factor of the ship,environmental factor,human factor and impact of management factor on the oil spill accident. The tanker "zhenleyoull"was taken as an example to establish the Multilevel Gray Evaluation Model,which has many advantages such as clearly laryered,simple computing and high credibility of its results. This model has provided an identification method for special treatment of the tanker oil spill reason. The multilevel and multiple-indicator evaluation system has a certain value and guiding significance as to preventing oil spill accidents and enhancing emphasized management of oil spill risk.Finally,in the light of the current situation and exising problems of tanker oil spill prevention ,this paper analyzed and brought up three targeted prevention measures.