Research On Risk Prediction Of Tanker's Oil Spill In The Sea Area Of Qingdao Port

As the third biggest oil-consuming countries in the world, China imported 2.39hundred million tons crude oil in 2010 and year-on-year growth of 17.5%. 90% ofthe import oil transported by oil tank, this will make the navigation environmentbecome more complicated, which lead to the incidence of oil spills more and morehigh, and seriously contaminate the marine living resources and marine ecologyenvironment. Therefore, in order to assist and supervise the risk assessment work, itis necessary that carrying out oil spill risk assessment study as soon as possible andmaking the appropriate environmental risk evaluation institutions.Oil Spill Risk Assessment has the characteristics of complexity, openness andrandomness. Basing on consulting literature and the survey of the experts, this articletakes Qingdao port as the research object, identifies the causes of oil spill in Qingdaoport area, and then focuses on three factors that impacting on the oil spill riskaccidents(factor of the ship, environmental factor and human factor), thus establishesthe grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for oil spill risk assessment. Theresults indicates that the grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied to study oilspill risk assessment of ships, which is completely feasible and valid. Finally, thispaper sets up the Oil Spill Simulation Model by "oil-particle" method,it simulates oilspill trajectory when happenes at different kinds combination of wave and wind,andin the light of the current situation and existing problems of tanker oi1 spillprevention, puts forward reasonable contingency plans.This article will play an important role in increasing the capacity of dealingwith the Qingdao port pollution and improving its pollution contingency plans. Atthe same time, this can be used for reference to the same type of the oil terminals andapplied to the maritime administration department.