Research Of Ship Oil Spill Risk Assessment For Zhoushan Sea Area Based On Gray Multi-hierarchical Model

Zhoushan islands new district is developed in national strategic decisions to deepen and strengthen national marine economy. As China’s first islands district, Zhoushan islands new district has been formally written into national five-year plan, aiming at like Singapore, Hong Kong world class port city, to drive the economy of the whole Yangtze river valley on March14,2011.So the potential risk of pollution from ships has been growing. Once the oil spill accident happened to a vessel in a large scale,it would inevitably bring serious damage to the marine ecological environment,the economic development,directly affecting the economic development of Zhoushan sea area.The main results of the research are as follows:1. Studied on hydrological information,meteorological information, geographic area and so on of the Zhoushan sea area.Risk analysis of nineteen kinds of affecting ship’s oil spill factors.2."Zhedaiyu15366" vessel had been set for example to set up multi-hierarchical gray evaluation model,and a software system on general risk assessment of ship’s oil spill in the sea area of Zhoushan was developed with Visual Basic6.0based on the model.3. With the methods of expert consult survey,we had got these conclusions by self-compiling program of Analytic Hierarchy Process based on MATLAB7.9:A-B judge matrix showed that vessel factor(0.4517) was the most dangerous factor; B1-C judge matrix showed that technical condition factor(0.3740) was the most dangerous factor; B2-C judge matrix showed that sea state factor(0.2895) was the most dangerous factor; B3-C judge matrix showed that safety management factor(0.6457) was the most dangerous factor; Cs-D judge matrix showed that wind factor(0.2883) was the most dangerous factor; C10-D judge matrix showed that responsibility consciousness factor(0.2887) was the most dangerous factor. 4. Assuming two kinds of extremum conditions by multi-hierarchical gray evaluation model,we obtained two extreme points and devided into four intervals which respectively directed at four risk grades.According to these results,we established the foundation for developing software on general risk assessment of ship’s oil spill in the sea area of Zhoushan.5. Six evaluation indexes of three types of general application scales of Analytic Hierarchy Process in paper were compared with each other,which were concluded en/5exponential scale.These evaluation indexes were consistency,the most deviation value,mean square deviation,scale uniformity,scale weight fitting degree,weight sorting.