Study On Water Demand Forecasting In Guangzhou

Water resources planning and optimal operatation for water supply systems are getting more and more important as the increase of water demand and the shortage of water resources, so water demand forecasting has been developed considerably as the premise and foundation of water supply management.According to the forecasting terms, water demand forecasting can be assorted into long-term forecasting and short-term forecasting.This paper aims at the analysis and the study of water demand pattern in Guangzhou. Through the analysis of water supply and demand conditions in Guangzhou City, linear regression analysis, gray model, the consumption indicator model and neural network model are used by means of the platform in Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 and MATLAB to study the annually water consumption pattern in Guangzhou, and aquire the proper mathematical model which reflects the relationship among the water consumption, Chinese GDP, population, weather and other factors, and long-term and short-term water demand forecasting can be done reasonably by these ways.On the basis of analyzing the daily water consumption data and the factors which affect the daily water consumption obviously, time series-nonlinear regression model and time series model has been built, and daily water demand in Guangzhou has been studied.Through the comphensive comparation of the above forecasting method and the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can arrive at a conculsion that the artificial neural network model are more suitable for long-term forecasting; The time series-regression analysis model are more accurate for the short-term forecasting, and the selecting methods for water demand forecasting models are raised according to the above analysis.Finally, on the basis of the above forecasting, the water consumption data of other cities in China and other countries has been collected and analysized, and the analysis results have been compared with that in Guangzhou.Through the comparison, the problems have been found in water demand in Guangzhou.The policies and and technical means can be carried out to control and solve the problems, and the water resoure can be planned reasonably.So the urban water supply can be indicated, and the sustainable economic development of Guangzhou can be assured.