Research On Changchun Water Demand Prediction

Changchun is located in the central part of Jilin Province and it is famous for the automobile industry, film industry, cultural industry and ecological development. In 2010, the city’s total population is 7.5889 million with a total land area of 20571km2. The mainly water system of Changchun are the second Songhua river, Lalin River and Closed flow in northwestern area. The average total water resources for many years to 27.46 × 108m3, Per capita water resources of 368m3, less than one sixth of the country and one-quarter of the province, less than the national average of 1/9. Because of the large population in the valley, the development of industrial and agricultural production, Water consumption, the higher degree of utilization of water resources development in Changchun, according to the years of water supply and demand statistics, the average years of the total water consumption accounted for 71.0 percent of local water resources in Changchun, water shortage has become a bottleneck in Changchun social and economic sustainable development. In view of this, this thesis of water demand prediction research for Changchun.This paper is based on the use of water in Changchun over the past years. Using the multiple linear regression model, GM(1, 1) model, and based on the Newton interpolation of gray model to predict water requirement of Changchun in 2015 and2020. Finally, to determine the most suitable model and water demand of Changch--un in the future through comparative analysis of the three models, and to determine the structure of the system of water demand in Changchun according to the proportion of the industry in Changchun and the proportion of water consumption in cities and counties.According to determination of the structure of water in Changchun and the water supply under the existing conditions, to provide a reasonable proposal for the development of the urban planning and industrial structure in the future.