Study On The Method Of Congestion Porpogation Estimation For Urban Road

Traffic congestion has been a global problem and makes serious affects on the persistence development of city and living of human beings.However, the urban roads are not in congestion all the time and everywhere.Consequently,if we can get traffic information promptly,and know where the congestions are happening,we could take full advantage of the urban roads.Thus we do not have to increase urban roads sacle,but in another way we can raise the efficiency of the urban roads to solve the problem of traffic congestion.This dissertation based on the National High-tech Research and Development Program (863) project"The key technology research and development of a new generation of intelligent traffic control system"(2006AA11Z228)sub items"Information collection technology of traffic control related condition". This dissertation made research of congestion porpogation estimation for urban road. The thesis designed a congestion porpogation estimation method based on GPS data and fixed detector data.The method can predict the process of congestion porpogation,and estimate direction and area of the congestion porpogation.This information can be provided to traffic managers, traffic controllers and travelers.This dissertation consists of six chapters.The 1st chapter introduced the source of research work, pointed out the necessity and meaning of this study, and discussed the domestic and international present situation and existent problems, carried out brief introduction for the major contents, and designed the technology routes of this dissertation.The 2nd chapter interpreted the diffusion of recurrent congestion and non-recurrent congestion, described the time and space diffusion, and analyzed the distinct diffusion characteristics of different congestion. These theories provided the foundation of constructing estimation models. The 3rd chapter introduce the different type detectors on urban street and the types of traffic flow parameter obtain from it. Then construct different congestion index base on the different parameter,and analysis the relationship between the congestion index and classify it.Based on the two types of detectors, the thesis designed a congestion space porpogation estimation method for single road.The 4th chapter researched on the congestion time porpogation estimation method for single road.This chapter designed two different methods to estimate the congestion duration time of the two types of congestion.The 5th chapter put forward the method of traffic congestion propagation estimation for road network.And, this chapter have used simulated data to test the proposed methods.The 6th chapter summarized the major research of this dissertation, pointed out the existing problems, and the problems that need to be further studied in the future.The information of the space propagation trend and duration of the traffic congestion are very important for the traffic management to make reasonable and effective measures for disperse congestion. This thesis analyzed the rule of traffic congestion propagation, and put forward the method of traffic congestion propagation estimation for single link and road network, and congestion duration estimation method. Finally, simulated data was used to test the proposed methods.