Study On Mid-long-term Runoff Forecast And Transbasin Diversion Operation Of DHF Reservoir

There are a kind of models about Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecasting,but none is suitable to each basin.moreover,how to use the information of Mid-long Term Forecasting to enlarge the efficiency of transbasin diversion system is studied seldom.So,some theoretics and means about Mid-long Term Forecasting and operation optimization of transbasin diversion were studied in this article.Several methods of Mid-long Term Hydrologic Forecasting were used to build model for Dahuofang Reservior,results of forecasting illustrated that BP Neural Network is the most adaptable to this river basin.Used the information of Mid-long Term Forecasting in operation optimization of transbasin diversion,the result of comparation FOS,SFOS,NFS display that FOS and SFOS both were reduced diversion and discharge. Application of Mid-long Term Forecasting information and optimization would make well use of DHF runoff,then reduce diversion from other fiver basin,enhance the benefit of transbasin system.The main contents are as follow:(1)Mid-long Term Forecasting of DHF reservior,built Mid-long Term runoff Forecasting models using Stationary Time Series Analysis,Stepwise Ultivariate Regression,BP Neural Network.Chose some siutable factors,use "Trial-and-Error","μ-ε"," kinetic momentum",all these improved the efficiency of BP model.The forecasting result displayed that BP model is the most siutable to this basin.(2)Imitate forecasting-optimzation schedule for transbasin diversion(SFOS).The main idea is,consider the forecasting of year and flood season to reduce diversion before flood season at the beginning of schedule period,reduce reasonably diversion according as time-interval forecasting during each period of time.Picked out five deputy years to calculate using mid-long term forecasting and DP optimized function.The result indicated that the use of forecasting information and optimization can decrease diversion and discharge.(3)Forecasting-optimization schedule for transbasin diversion(FOS).The research process is similiar with SFOS except that importing runoff was the forecasting which received before.Compared the result of SFOS,FOS,NFS,it was approved that SFOS and FOS is better than NFS,moreover,analyzed the difference and causation about the result of SFOS and FOS in briefly.