The Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Factors On China's Urban Rail Transport Development Scale

In recent years, with the rapid socio-economic development of cities, the urbanization process has accelerated rapidly increasing traffic demand, the residents continue to increase the average trip distance, auto issues as the proliferation of road construction, traffic management, the environment has brought tremendous Pressure, the road network capacity has been unable to meet the growing demand for urban transport. To ease tensions and improve the traffic situation, widen the road alone can not solve the problem. Therefore, to quickly build large-capacity rail transportation, ground transportation for the rapid bus passenger traffic based on the comprehensive system, has become an inevitable choice for urban development.China's rail transport market development slower, since the 1969 Beijing subway opened first in the country until 2001 for 32 years, Beijing has only 42 km subway construction. The successful bid of Beijing, rail transportation to a certain extent, is a serious lag. At present, Beijing's rail transportation also is only the weak transport operators to add, far short of Beijing's urban development needs.Experienced in 1995 and 2002 to freeze the building of the subway period, China's rail transportation construction in 2005 entered a period of rapid development, especially the "11th Five-Year Plan" from the policy is to give guidance. At present, China's urban rail transport construction rate ranks first in the world, the average annual completion of the line of 180 km, of which, Shanghai Rail Transport Construction annual growth rate is about 60 km and the speed of similar foreign city only 10 kilometers around 2008 Before the Olympic Games, Beijing rail transit operators will increase the total mileage of 200 km and by 2010, Shanghai will build rail transit 369.8 km, is expected to national "11th Five-Year Plan" period will be building about 1,500 km rail traffic, the total amount of investment Around billion in 400-500.Development of urban rail transport is not only ease urban traffic jams and effective measures, but also reduce pollution, facilitate travel, the improvement of the urban living environment, sustainable development of urban facilities necessary requirement. Therefore, in rail transportation of the building boom of its in-depth study of a more profound significance.In this paper, qualitative and quantitative analysis of a combination of the urban rail transport development model and the scale of empirical research. On the statistical analysis of the multiple regression analysis in the development of rail transportation-scale analysis and application, and Beijing urban rail transport as an example, the establishment of the linear regression model, and specific analysis and research the development scale of the impact of factors. Finally, the basis for Beijing urban rail transport development scale analysis of some of China's overall development and construction of urban rail transport proposals and prospects.