The Analysis And Study Of Load Forecasting In Power Network Planning

Load forecasting is one of the basic works of power network planning. It provides necessary and basic data for power network planning, the precision of these data decides the quality of power network planning. Load forecasting involves extensive domain and has many uncertain influence factors, and each method or model for load forecasting has its own advantages, faults and application range, and the predicting idea varies greatly, so it is of great difficulty to forecast load accurately.This paper analyzes and discusses every aspects of load forecasting involved in the power networks planning, which including object, principle, content, flow, model and method of load forecasting etc. The load forecasting in power network planning is studied synthetically, which emphasizes on the model and method of load forecasting.As to the model, each single model suited to the load forecasting in power network planning is analyzed and discussed in detail, which advantages, disadvantages and application range are summarized. On combined forecasting, the model is studied in this paper, the method in common use and hot topic in current study is discussed, the advantages and difficulties in application are summarized, then, a new model based on error forecasting modulation is proposed, which can discover the inherent laws of load development and is of higher precision.As to the method of load forecasting, based on the different collection of historical data, the planned area falls into two kinds—the old area and the new one. Corresponding forecasting method is proposed according to each kind, which availed to increase the precision of load forecasting and is a kind of creation in this paper.Lastly, based on the proposed model and method, an example is given, proving that the model and method proposed is feasible.