Study Of The Highway-surface Temperature Model And Prediction System

There is a great deal of research on the road-surface extreme high temperature and low temperature both home and abroad, because it is one of the important influence factors to highway traffic. But most of study mode abroad is focus on theories and calculates complex, and it is not in conformity with real environment of the domestic highway. Most of the domestic theoretical model is the experimental work; it is not conducive to business. And universality of the statistical model is poor. Therefore, based on the research both home and abroad, through high-precision business observations, we explore a set of road-surface temperature forecasting model suited to our country especially eastern region of the highway.In this paper, based on the high-density and long-sequences of observation data of Hu-Ning highway which from meteorological institute of Jiangsu Province, by using road energy balance method, considering the balance among solar short-wave radiation, atmospheric and ground long-wave radiations, latent heat fluxes and sensible heat fluxes, an hour by hour forecasting model for asphalt highway-surface temperature is established. The results show that the mean absolute error of the model is 1.32℃, the frequency of the forecasting error between -3℃and 3℃is 85.2%, which prove that the model is useful in the prediction of highway-surface temperature.In order to make the forecasting model has a longer time effectiveness to meet the actual needs of business; the paper combined the road-surface temperature forecasting model and meso-scale numerical forecasting model. The model can output the next 24 hours or even longer road-surface temperature forecasting value. To verify the results show that the mean absolute error of the model is 3.57℃and 3.67℃in Meicun and Xian Renshan station, the frequency of the forecasting error between -3℃and 3℃were 74.4% and 74.1%, which prove the forecast effect is good.At the same time, the paper fitting out a set of simple and practical empirical models based on the data of the basic meteorological stations (or base stations) along the Hu-Ning highway and the data of the stations on the Hu-Ning highway. And the paper inverse the 20 years highway-surface temperature simulation data use of model. On the basis of the simulation data, we give the analysis on the time and space of the Hu-Ning highway-surface temperature. There is certain significance to the practice business.