The Research Of Flight Reliability Assessment Of Anti-ship Missile

The assessment of flight reliability of anti-ship missile is a complex systems engineering and involve various information. In this paper, we make good use of subsystem and component test data, which make up of the missile system. Then we use Bayesian method, which is introduced to utilizing both various prior information and test data in diverse phases synthetically and combining a little field information, to assess the flight reliability of anti-ship missile. The primary works include:1,The assessment of reliability of anti-ship's component is discussed. This paper considers three reliability models: success-failure model, exponential life model and Weibull life model. Referring to component which belongs to success-failure model, the problem about choosing the best prior distribution function, when no prior information is included, is discussed and considering some expert empirical information, the method that choosing the best prior distribution function is improved on. For the component which belongs to Weibull life model, some proper hypothesis is introduced to predigest the computation and receive feasible engineering method to the assessment of reliability.2,The classification of prior information of anti-ship missile is analyzed, and two kinds of fusion methods for Multi-sources or Multi-phases of prior information are presented. Information fusion models of anti-ship missile are established, for getting more comprehensive and more exact information by utilizing various prior information adequately.3,The problem that how to convert information of test on the ground into field test is discussed. Based on the conversion factor which is obtained, we explain the method that how to convert data. The method makes good use of information and makes the result not a rash advance. The hierarchical Bayesian method, which confirms the interval of weight based on expert's information, is used to assess flight reliability of anti-ship missile when fusing information from various sources. The formula used for calculate posterior probability density function by hierarchical Bayesian method are presented, the method is more robust and more credible than the method that calculating weight directly.4,The procedure for the assessment of flight reliability of anti-ship missile is presented. Based on the prior distribution function of flight reliability of anti-ship missile, the point assessment and low confidence assessment of the procedure are made. The influence of prior information on the flight reliability of anti-ship missile is analyzed. The result shows that exact and credible prior information can make the reliability assessment more precision, also can reduce experiment times and save the cost.