Sstudy On Pprior Iinformation Fusion Method In Reliability Assessment For Low-Voltage Switvhgear

Various related reliability information can be fully used by Bayes methods, including historical product, similar products, and the information of tests on different occasions. Product failure data is equivalent increasing while prior distribution is transformed from prior information fusion by this method. The goal of reducing cost of test and increasing test efficiency is achieved by reducing required number of test sub-sample greatly when analyzing system reliability. Thus, it has significant economic value. Reliability assessment for low-voltage switchgear should be done by using Bayes theory. Because traditional reliability assessment methods base on large sample will no longer suit for low-voltage switchgear, which is long life time, high reliability, highly cost products. Prior information, has great impact on ultimate reliability assessment results, is the foundation and key of the entire reliability assessment method when low-voltage switchgear reliability is assessed by using Bayes theory. The main works of this paper are as follows:Firstly, whole ideas and methods, based on Bayes theory, of reliability assessment for low-voltage switchgear will be elaborated and researched, after elaborating Bayes theory systematically.Secondly, prior information, can be compared with field information, is got by classifying and sorting prior information achieved through contacting and discussing with electrical manufacturers in Tianjin, Suzhou and other places. A credible prior information, providing foundation for information fusion and prior distribution, is got after doing compatibility test and credibility calculation for sorted information and field information.Finally, conjugate prior distribution logarithmic inverse gamma (LIG) is got after researching multiple source information fusion technology systematically and discussing commonly used information fusion methods, so does the prior distribution format of low-voltage switchgear. Conjugate prior distribution of low-voltage switchgears is constructed preliminarily by making a multiple source prior information fusion calculation for it according to prior information, which have been collected. All of these laid a foundation for following work of this project.