Study On The Account Computation And The Comprehensive Evaluation Of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity

With the growth of population, the development of economy, and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, water resources has been a bottleneck of national economic development. How to effectively relax the contradictions among water resources, ecological environment, population and economic development, which are sharper day by day, and realize the coordinate and sustainable development of the complex system of water resources-ecology-social economy, have been necessitating solved issues. The water resources carrying capacity(WRCC) is not only an important index reflecting whether water resources is sustainably developed, but also a critical index reflecting the relationship between water resources and social economic development, which has important significance to realize the sustainable development of the complex system of the water resources-ecology-social economy, is the basis and precondition to determine the development scale of social economy, has been one of key and focus problems in water sciences research field at present.In this paper, the definition, intension, extension and its influence factors of WRCC are analyzed on the basis of research achievement. At present, there are mainly two kinds of the WRCC research methods. One kind is account computation models, which results are the size of WRCC. In this paper, with the number of population as objective, on the basis of dynamical predictions of the parameters of the social development in the future, the WRCC scales of the actuality year and the planning level years will be calculated, and the conditions of WRCC will be judged with the Relative Carrying Index. The other kind is the synthetic evaluation models, which results are the conditions of WRCC. In this paper, based on the foundation of WRCC evaluation index system, WRCC synthetic evaluation model is established by set pair analysis principles and improved attribute synthetic assessment model, and then using these two models to evaluate the WRCC in Huaibei, Anhui Province, the results are resonable.