Study On Earlywarning System In Xiangjiang Shipping Safety

Xiangjiang is the largest river in Hunan province, which plays a very important part in transportation, and mineral resources in Hunan province are so rich that the best transportation way is shipping. During the increase of Hunan economy, this channel has been very busy, and maritime accidents including ship pollution accidents occur even more frequently.Because the earlywarn system for maritime accidents hasn't been set up,we don't have enough ability to control the loss when accident takes place and treat the accident after it has happened.Referring to the study on earlywarn theory domestic and overseas, this thesis uses earlywarn theory in to Xiangjiang shipping safety, and builds the earlywarn system, with the purpose to prevent the occurrence and expansion of accident, reduce the danger and loss of accident, and keep Xiangjiang shipping developing continuously.This thesis analyses the present situation and problems of Xiangjiang shipping system based on a large number of investigations and researches on Xiangjiang shipping. As a result of analyzing large of Xiangjiang maritime accidents, we find the rules of maritime accidents from time and space, then analyse the causes of Xiangjiang maritime accidents and construct accident causation sequence under guidance of Bird's accident causation sequence theory.How to construct Xiangjiang shipping safety earlywarn system is the key for this thesis. The content of earlywarn system is to monitor Xiangjiang shipping system, evaluate its safety, diagnoses the signs of accident that maybe occur. If the accident has happened, it should take measures to control and rescue.When seting up index system of earlywarn system, first, to choose indexes from the causes of accidents; second, to eliminate some indexes through expert investigation; last, to set up index system from four aspects,people,shippes,natural environment and navigation situation. The weights of ever index are decided by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). The earlywarn system uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct the model, this method has two fuzzy sets,one is composed by lots of elements(which is called element set) ,the other is the evaluation grades used to evaluate the targets(which is called evaluation set). Each element has a subordinate degree to each evaluation grade (which is called fuzzy matrix), and also has weights to evaluation targets. We can calculate fuzzy matrix and weights to get the quantitative value of the evaluation (which is called fuzzy matrix composition). All of the elements are decided in qualitative and quantitative way.The conclusion which is analysed from an actual example indicates that the Xiangjiang shipping safety earlywarn system is relatively rational, and can mainly reflect the safety situation of Xiangjiang shipping. At the same time, this thesis brings up some measures in order to make Xiangjiang shipping running more effective.