Quantitative Research On Landscape Planning Process Through Scenario Analysis Approach

On one hand, more and more attentions have being drawn to ecological andenvironmental issues, however, much less of them are paid to scientificalness ofplanning process, credibility of data, especially in quantitative analysis. Withprogresses in survey possibilities and data technique, it becomes an urgent andpossible task to apply information technique to large-scale planning involved withmulti-disciplinary issues, such as wetland park planning.On the other hand, integrated wetland park conservation is just evolving in China,with only a history of less than 3yrs. What should be taken in to consideration forChinese wetland parks? What problems is China facing? Should their wetland parksfollow classic western model "wetland protection " plus "recreation experience", orshould they explore a new path with Chinese Characteristics?With this respect, this thesis focuses on how to make intensive use of wetlandresources through planning and design, with respect for ecological principles andhydrological regimes, and try to explore a new path with Chinese characteristics, tomeet local agricultural, ecological, tourist and other needs.Based on a 4yrs independent research, organized by four levels of models fromSteinitz's 6-level framework (1990): presentation models, process models, evaluationmodels and change models, both quantitative and qualitative data are processed. Aspatial approach is explored, which consists of different scenarios integrating withecological conservation, flood management, tourist experience and agriculturalproduction.Presentation models are composed of two parts: bio-physical environment andsocial-cultural environment, based on Steiner's inventory list(2000) for an ecologicalapproach to landscape planning and Code for Scenic area Planning (GB50298-1999).Quantitative and qualitative data are arranged to presentation models, with majorproblems highlighted at the end.Process models explore natural and social-cultural drives in Sangyang Wetland park,including social-economical drive from human systems, landscape spatial pattern,nitrogen and phosphor circulation, and interactions inside landscape.Evaluation models are composed of flood threat evaluation, vulnerability evaluationto stream disturbance, visual sensitivity assessment, cultural sensitivity assessment,comprehensive utilization of buildings and suitability evaluation for orange crops.Change models are composed of mixed land-use pattern, spatial plans andmanagement policies for three scenarios: maintaining-oriented scenario,conservation-oriented scenario and developing-oriented scenario. The highlights are:First, complex data for Sanyang Wetland planning are organized with in Steinitz'sFramework(1990), both quantitative and qualitative, spatial and non-spatial, vectorand non-vector;Second, Steinitz's Framework(1990) is improved by introducing DESIGNSTRATEGIES, which enable interferences to quantitative analysis process andprovide more direct possibilities between quantitative analysis and design;Third, floods with different frequencies are taken into spatial planning as one of thegoals in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA);Forth, creative estimating methods are employed in situation of incomplete data.