Research On The Accident Causations Of Mountainous Road

Comparing with the situation of plain area road, the absolute number of crashes in mountainous is quite less, but the accident mortality is higher relatively. According to the traffic accident statistics in 2002, we find that the crashes which more than 10 people died per accident almost occurred in the mountainous highways. Because of the traffic accidents in mountainous having higer ponderance and making a strong impact on society and people, so it has more realism significance on the accident causation studies.This paper has roundly and systematically investigated and researched on the traffic accidents of certain westward mountainous highway, finds that the ill alignment is the primary cause of inducing frequent accidents, so the study would give more emphasis on road alignment factors. Through auditing of the road plain, profile and their combinations'alignments, some hidden troubles of the road would be found. Based on the qualitative analysis, negative binomial model has been used to predict crashes. Model's variables such as road factors and traffic flow can microscopically revealed that those are causations on crashes. On this basis, combining with prediction model and practical works, this paper has digged and judged the main causations in each unit and calculated the relative accident level in order to rank in terms of it. Using the ranking results, it can be discovered the dangerous unit which needed to be improved urgently. This method is suitable for evaluating the road safety especially for those highways which newly builted or roads without accurate accident data. Then, subsequent research on accident modification factors(function) has been discussed the influence degree of each causation on crashes in-depth, combining the qualitative investigation and the quantitative analysis, the negative binomial model has been revised. This studies could provide a beneficial reference to engineers. Finally, according to the analysis above, the author proposes a series of targeted measures or suggestions to mountainous road.