Research Of Risk Management On Fengjiashan Reservoir

The flood control level is an important and sensitive index in reservoir flood-control dispatching, the reasonable limited water level can efficiently solve the conflict between reservoir's flood control and it's benefit, and the aim of reducing flood disaster loss and geting maximum system profit can be realized. Through many years run,Fengjiashan Reservoir's water supply has beening diversified and profiting requirements is becoming higher; On the other hand, the reservoir's inflow is mainly concentrated in the flood season.These intensify the conflict between flood control and profiting. Therefore, in order to coordinate this conflict and make full use of rainy season's flood resources, it is necessary to research the scientific division of Fengjiashan Reservoir's flood season and rationally determine the flood control level.Based on extensive reading literature and mastering the forefront of disciplines, the author used fuzzy sets analysis to study Fengjiashan Reservoir's flood season staging and flood control level. Main content and research results are as follows:(1) By reading a lot of literature, this paper summarized the progress of flood staging and flood control level determining methods.It also summarized the advantages and disadvantages of various methods.(2) This paper put forward that flood season is fuzzy phenomenon and has fuzziness. Through comparating the general description and the fuzzy description method,it showed that using fuzzy set theory can objectively and completely describe the "flood season" hydrological event and overcomed the general set theory description's deficiency of "either-or".(3) Through the analysis of weather systems and precipitation,it showed that the flood season of Qianhe River basin is in accord with the fuzzy phenomenon law, and on this basis, the membership of flood season was calculated by fuzzy set theory. The fuzzy division of flood season is: the pre-rainy season 6.1～7.13, the main flood season 7.14～9.4, the later flood season 9.5～10.31.(4) According to the design flood control storage,flood water level and its corresponding capacity of main flood season, the total water storage capacity in all sessions was calculated by membership for weight.Then, the flood control level in various time slots was checked on the water level and storage capacity curve according to the total value of storage capacity.(5) Using fuzzy sets analysis can improvely describe the actual situation of flood season and is better to reflect that the reservoir's flood season is a continuous process of change. The flood control level of calculation is also consistent.That overcomed the limited water level's inoperablity of Suddenly raising or lowering. At the same time,comparing with the actual operation programme,the calculated one can reduce flood water disposal, increase water supply and improve flood resource utilization. Clearly, the flood control level programme is feasible, and provides a new way to alleviate the conflict between flood control and profiting on Fengjiashan Reservoir.