Study And Development On Fengjiashan Reservoir Flood Forecasting And Dispatching System

On the basis of consulting a large number of literatures domestic and aboard, the present situation and latest development of flood real-time forecasting methods and models is reviewed. Study is conducted on flood real-time forecasting and dispatching for Fengjiashan reservoir, aiming at building appropriate flood forecasting model and developing universal and practical computer system. The main contents and results of this paper are listed below:(1) Flood real-time forecasting model is the core of flood forecasting and dispatching system. Based on the detailed analysis of the basin characteristics of the Qian River, the Total Runoff Linear Response Model (TLR) is built for flood forecasting, and AR model of error sequence is established for flow correction. The precision grade of the flood forecasting scheme is the second, which indicates that the TLR model has a high adaptability, and it is feasible to be used in the flood forecasting of Fengjiashan reservoir.(2) On the basis of the TLR model, the TLR model with multi-input and single-output is built to take the spatial asymmetry of precipitation into account, and the Total Runoff Nonlinear Response Model (TNLR) is established to take the precipitation intensity into account. Simulating results show that the TNLR model has a higher precision and better adaptability inarid and semi-arid area in the northwest China.in(3) Flood control and dispatching is an important part of the computer system. The models of regular dispatching and beforehand dispatching are preliminarily constructed. Trial dispatching is conducted for the check flood with a recurrent interval of 2000 years, which indicates that the dispatching model is stable and efficient.(4) Fengjiashan reservoir flood forecasting and dispatching system is developed by using the advanced developing platform and tools, together with the object-oriented and visual programming technique. The finished system has a perfect function, a friendly interface, and a high automation. In addition, the design of the system is modularized and standardized, which is helpful to reuse and expand the software, and is also convenient for the information share and integrated management of variable flood control systems.(5) Combined with the development of Fengjiashan reservoir flood forecasting and dispatching system, some modern techniques are discussed, such as system theory, object-oriented programming, database management system, and contour drawing, etc.