Research On Risk Analysis And Management Of Engineering Projects

An engineering project is proceeded in a complex natural and social environment, it is an one-off process from its feasibility research, design, construction to the final acceptance check. Because it is an open system, even they are emphasized that the basic construction program should be followed and the normalization and standardization management should be implemented, but it still inevitably suffers the interference from various uncertain factors, consequently the risk that the progress, quality and expenses control cannot be fulfilled rises. With the increase of the social production capability and the development of science and technology, the scale and complexity of the projects are increasing day by day, the severity level of the loss caused by the risk is also consequently increasing, even become the essence of the success of the project, hence the project risk management is particularly important and the risk management is indispensable to the project management.At the present time, the investment and the time limit for a project are often out of control in many projects in our country. Mismanagement and the backward method, together with underestimate, poor response strategy and poor supervisory control in the effects and restrict of the risk factors increase the phenomenon, which causes a great loss in the development of the project. To identify, estimate, evaluate and to control the project risk are becoming an urgent task.Firstly, the concept and characteristic of the risk, the constructional engineering project risk, the concept and main contents in the constructional engineering project management are introduced in this thesis. Secondly, the main process in the constructional engineering project management including the risk recognition, risk analysis, risk evaluation, risk control and decision-making are expounded. Some common-used risk recognition methods and the risk born by who participates in the constructional engineering project are introduced. On the risk analysis and risk evaluation, the fuzzy hierarchy analytical process and ABC analytical method are used in the project risk analysis; qualitative analysis is integrated with quantitative analysis to make subjective estimation objective. The risk administrative decision is the core of the project risk management, thereby the utility theory to make strategic decisions is used. Considering that the decision maker's attitude has an influence on decision behavior, taken the utility function deduced for a bidder's action to the constructional engineering project as an instance, a definite utility function "N-M" psychological test method is introduced in this thesis. At last, taken the analysis and evaluation made by some department for the cost risk of a project as an instance, the application of the fuzzy hierarchy analytic process is presented. This analytical method integrates the virtue of the fuzzy mathematical method with the hierarchy analytic process, makes up for their disadvantage. By importing the ABC analytical method in economic analysis, it has a certain practical value and is expected to provide references for the managers participated in construction engineering trades.