Research On The Forecast Method Of Trip Generation Based On The Lowry Model Improment

As the precondition and foundation for transportation demand, the result of trip generation affects the following stage and rationality of transportation planning, so trip generation is very important in transportation demand. The amount of trip generation is closely bound up region population, so it is important to forecast region population with out investigated data. On the side, elasticity trip will be more and more along with economy development. There are many factors affect the elasticity trip, how to forecast elasticity trip accurately is attended by many scholar.Base on the above standpoints, this article forecasts population and employments of trip zones by improving the Lowry model. The result of Lowry model applies to trip generation forecast.This paper introduces population potential and the employment potential concept to improve the population and the employment distributation function of the Lowry model. Using the genetic algorithm to calibrate the population potential and the employment potential, then, through multi-dimensional gradually regression to analysis the relationship between each kind of land utilization and population position potential and employment potential. In this way to determine the main land utilization type which influence population potential and employment potential. So, according to year land utilization, we can compute population potential and employment potential, and apply them to the Lowry model.Then, based on emphatically analyzes in the goal characteristic of inhabitant trip, compiles to each kind of trip characteristics are three kinds, namely goes to work, goes to school and elastic trip. Introduction utility function concept, with showed the peripheral elasticity trip influence, finally, and establishes the subtitle inhabitant trip generation forecast model.With the help of case to unify the Lowry model and the trip generation forecast. Trip zones population and employments obtains from the Lowry model apply in the trip generation forecast model, obtained the quantity of trip generation of different items at last.