Research And Utility Of Disaggregate Model Based On Trip Activity

With the continuous economic development, cities in china are quickly urbanized, which cause more and more private cars being owned in cities, which aggravate urban traffic congestion. Doing research on travel behavior, and framing traffic demand management policies to meet Residents' travel demands, which are used to optimize urban transport structure and guarantee the development of transportation being in a normal state have become an effective way to solve urban traffic congestion. Trip mode choice is the most basic process of travelling, and its analysis and prediction is one of the main elements of traffic and transportation planning. Only if trip mode split is accurately predicted will transport operation and management policies be framed accurately so that they can meet travel demands of residents, alleviate urban traffic congestion.The basic theories of travel behavior and analysis methods were summarized in this thesis by analyzing and generalizing the research and development situation of the disaggregate theory and travel behavior theory of international research. Disaggregate model for trip mode split based on activity was researched in this thesis. Travel behaviors were sorted into four types based on residents' travel characters. A MNL model was founded for calculating activity mode choice. Five more MNL models were founded for calculating trip model split in different travel behavior. The parameters of MNL model were estimated by using data of Beijing Trip Survey, and then the results were examined successfully. The main ideas and results of this thesis are as follows:(1)The basic theory and analysis methods of travel behavior research were generalized. Basic mathematical properties of disaggregate model were epitomized, and BNL, MNL, NL, BCL etc. were introduced in this paper.(2)Activity mode choice model and trip mode split model were established based on the analysis to factors. Addition form was used in utility function. The congregation of activity mode includes was established. The parameters of utility function was established, too.(3)The data of Beijing Trip Survey was processed by Visual Foxpro. Different mode's chosen rate in different conditions was analyzed.(4)The effects to trip mode choice from personal characters, travel characters, and transport facilities' service level were analyzed and listed, the main characters analyzed is age, work type, whether or not own month pass, family month travel fee, family month income, and travel distance.(5)The value of parameters of activity mode choice model and trip mode split model were calculated based on data of Beijing Trip Survey.(6)The results were tested by T test and shooting test. In T test, all the test values are greater than 1.96, and in shooting test, all test values are greater than 90%, all these test value proof that the results are great.