Study On Models Of The Passengers Flow Forecast Of Urban Railway Transportation Base On Four Stage Method

Metropolitan railway traffic is a pattern of passenger transport which possesses shortcut, safe and efficient specialty. The best approach is actively developing metropolitan railway traffic system. At the same time, metropolitan railway traffic construction possesses some characteristics: highly cost, years of programming, strong comprehensibility, numerous fields. So reasonable programming and scientific forecast about passenger flow can ensure railway traffic playing the important role.The predicting of urban rail transportation flow of passengers through predicting the flow of circuit section, the flow of transfer, flow of entrances and exits of station。It offers the important quantization index for the appraisal, track of the planning network scheme and is a new study developed in recent years. science decision to the rail transportation project has important meanings.This paper is divided into four parts:The first chapter describes the characteristics of urban rail transport, development of domestic and international rail traffic and rail traffic flow forecasts importance.Chapter II railway traffic flow forecast track of traffic classification and prediction of uncertainty and complexity, and introduction land use method and traditional four-stage method. Finally, the traditional method of less than four phases.The third chapter has made the improvement in view of the traditional four-stage method.In the model to attract traffic generated by travel purposes and the residential area were modeling;The traffic distribution model in the sub-region and the interval were modeling the traffic distribution model.In the way of traffic model in the study had extensive discussions, proposed a competition strategy of mode of transportation model and the "means of urban transportation and distribution of the traffic model";Finally the introduction of a transport planning software TransCAD distribution, improve the efficiency of the forecast. Chapter IV of the Chongqing Municipal existing land, land planning, urban transportation systems and data, information and data to Chongqing Rail Transit Line 1 as an example of the above-related research and model specific analysis and calculation.