Study On Urban Internal Traffic Demand Forecast Method Of Railway Passenger Transport Hub

As the major component of urban external passenger transport system, railway passenger transport hub is the key node for the smoothly running of the urban external passenger transport system. It is an important public facility, which is also the gateway of the city. But the characteristics of the traffic of the railway passenger transport hub, such as the intensive diversity and aggregation, the short-term nature and the complexity, always cause the worsening of the region's traffic. How to reduce the influence to the urban daily traffic and at the same time make the travel of the passenger fast, safe, comfortable is an urgently problem faced by the traffic mangers in the cities. Base on above, the paper researched the theory and the method of the urban internal traffic demand forecast of the railway passenger transport hub.Based on the analysis and summary of the domestic and abroad research about the railway passenger transport hub, the railway passenger hub was defined first. Then the railway passenger transport hub was divided into four kinds according to the number of the railway passenger stations contained in the hub and the relationship between the stations, and the IV type hub, which contains multiple stations that compete incompletely, was chosen as the research object in the paper. Then the feathers of the railway passenger transport hub, such as the characteristics of traffic demand, traffic flow and the travelers, have been studied, from which conclusions can be made that traffic of the railway passenger transport hub has some different characteristics from the urban daily traffic, which are the large demand, the intensive diversity and aggregation, the complexity, etc.In the foundation of the analysis and comparisons of the three major transport demand forecast theories, the paper studied the urban internal traffic demand of the railway passenger transport hub, with the four-stage forecast method of the aggregate model as the major forecast framework, focused on the trip generation forecast, the traffic distribution forecast and the traffic mode-split forecast.In the stage of the trip generation forecast, according to the different transportation attributes, the collection and distribution passenger flow and the interchange passenger flow were researched separately, and their trip generation forecast model were established respectively. In the stage of traffic distribution forecast, after the urban internal traffic distribution characteristics of the railway passenger transport hub were analyzed, the opportunity selection model which can reflect those characteristics greatly was chosen as the foundation of the study. According to those characteristics, the opportunity selection variable of the hub was modified and an improved opportunity selection model was established as the urban internal traffic distribution forecast model of the railway passenger transport hub. In the stage of traffic mode-split forecast, the activity-based traffic demand forecast method was introduced and five typical trip modes of the railway passenger transport hub were defined first. According to the macroscopic and microscopic influencing factors, such as individual characteristic, traffic mode characteristic, traffic management characteristic, and the characteristic of railway passenger transport hub, the activity-based traffic mode-split forecast model was established. Then the characteristic variable, parameter estimation and statistical suggestion of the model were researched.