Research On Traffic Growth Forecast The Reconstruction And Extension Project Area Of Zhumadian-xinyang Section Of Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway

With the rise of the central region,the western development and a series of macro-development strategy of deepening,export-oriented economic connotation will be further expanded,inter-provincial communication gradually active,and long-distance regional material exchanges and business contacts will be more frequent.As the north and south traffic aorta and the national trunk road,Beijing Hong Kong and Macao high-speed road is facing a huge traffic demand,and the implementation of expansion project to improve the capacity of the Central Plains hinterland has become an urgent need for regional road network development.The implementation of project expansion will greatly improve the level of channel service,effectively reduce the cost of production and transportation,and realize the effective allocation of resources in larger space,which is conducive to promoting the further development of economic belt along the highway,which is conducive to attracting traffic of the main line,the main channel,the main skeleton of the function and role.Therefore,accurate traffic forecast is significant for the entire renovation and expansion project decision-making and implementation.Firstly,thisdissertation summarizes the research on the forecast of domestic and international traffic volume,expatiates the development process and research status of traffic forecasting research field,and lists the commonly used traffic forecasting methods,and analyzes the use conditions and limitations of various methods.This dissertation investigates the status of transportation in the affected area before the implementation of the project,discusses the status quo of the integrated transportation system formed by the transportation forms including railway,highway,waterway,civil aviation and pipelines in Henan Province,points out the status and function of road transport,and introduces Zhumadian and Xinyang City,the traffic situation.Through the analysis of the traffic forecasting method,the forecasting method adopted in this project is determined.The road traffic volume of this project is surveyed,and the trend of road traffic growth is analyzed,and the correlation coefficient is analyzed by using economic correlation coefficient and elasticity coefficient.Throught conducting a special investigation of OD,OD area is divided and OD data is summarized so that the base year OD is formed.The forecast of traffic volume in the project affected area is obtained by forecasting the concentration,traffic volume distribution,induced traffic volume and transfer traffic volume.