Load Characteristics Analysis And Load Forecasting In Hangzhou District

During the 10th Five-Year Plan, electricity load structure and pattern of the national power grid had undergone tremendous change, at the same time, the power supply-demand contradiction had been further sharpened. Load characteristics are an important indictor to evaluate the situation of power grid load, this is because their changes and trends reflect the pros and cons of electricity load structure and pattern.In the paper, power load is presented firstly, and the basic characteristics of load researched which are periodic, continuous, seasonal and peculiar in special days are acquired. The common indictors are also presented simply. Based on the above, the load characteristics during ordinary days and holidays in Hangzhou district are analyzed respectively by the curve and the load indictors, and then the characteristics and trends of load characteristics and the problem of power grid, increasing of peak-valley difference, declining of load rate, and threats to secure, stable, reliable and economic operation of power grid, are summarized. Based on load characteristics analysis, the difference of load characteristics between ordinary days and holidays and the significant similarity of load curves shape in the same date, both of them are forecasted respectively by using Support Vector Machine (SVM) method and conventional forecasting method. The forecasting models are effective by the forecast error analysis. Finally, in order to optimize the load characteristics and improve or solve the problem of power grid, the reason for load characteristics changes is further analyzed, and then from adjustment in electricity load, the implementation of Demand Side Management (DSM) in Hangzhou district is discussed, in particular, the peak-valley price policy.Through the research in the paper, guiding role for load dispatch and consulted basis for regulation of load characteristics in this district are provided.