Study On The Flood Forecasting Model Of The Chang River

As one tributary of rao river,the chang river flows through the Jingdezhen city. Each year the economic losses caused by the floods in Jingdezhen is very serious and it impacts on local economic development extremely.With the social development and wealth accumulation,the economic losses caused by the floods will be grow year by yaer.Therefore,we must strengthen the system of flood forecasting of the chang river,enhance flood control facilities,and maximize the economic losses caused by the flood disasters.The chang river is located in sub-humid areas in south of china,belonging to the mountain rivers,and the floods steep ups and downs which is a certain difficulties to forecast.The forecasting method of the watershed hydrological forecasting on dufengkeng station is forecasting experience(experience related to rainfall runoff).If the floods are in a row for the process,it is often difficult to forecast the outcome of the production to meet the needs of practice.It is therefore necessary for the Chang river to higher forecast accuracy of flood forecasting model to better carry out the flood warning,flood control and rescue for the winning time.In this paper,choose the dufengkeng station as a control station and study its flood forecasting model.the research methods and the conclusions are as follows:(1),utilize Xin'anjiang(three waters) model,the Sacramento model and the experience model related to rainfall runoff to simulate the flood forecasting of the Chang river,analyse the simulation results and conclude that:Xin'anjiang(three waters) and the Sacramento Model can reach high precision,and Xin'anjiang model is better than Sacramento,but the experience related to rainfall runoff model is of a relatively low accuracy.(2),Improve the evapotranspiration module of the Xin'anjiang model,and establish the flood forecasting model of the Chang river.The flood simulation results show that:The new model of the chang river have a good simulation in the flood forecasting of the chang river basin,and it is a little better than Xin'anjiang model.(3),adopted amendments to laws autoregression and RLS algorithm for the prediction of floods amendment process,it concluded that the effect of the recursive least squares is better than the effect of the reunification Amendment.From the conclusion of the top,we conclude that the dufengkeng station's flood forecasting mehod of the Chang river is as follows:First of all,using the model of the Chang river to simulate the flood,and then using RLS algorithm for the flood forecasting process of correction.The correction of the value of flood forecasting as a prediction of the ultimate outcome.