The Study On Model Of Real-time Flood Forecasting System In Minjiang Catchment

The sameness and difference of Xin' anjiang model and Vertical-mixed runoff model is studied through the theory, structure and parameter of the hydrologic catchment model by the dissertation. The rationality of the two conceptual hydrologic catchment model is demonstrated furthermore by simulation of 15 sub catchments in Minjiang main stream. The conclusion is that both xin' anjiang model and vertical-mixed runoff model can get reasonable results. It is necessary and effective to employ the forecasting models of different structures because of the difference in mechanisms of yield, structure and parameter as well as the results of different flood characteristic. At the same time, the maxim of deterministic coefficient of actual hydrologic data and computation data of forepart in flood is the criterion to choose models in the dissertation. Then the selected model is used to simulate forecasting. Another conclusion is that the precision of flood forecasting can be improved by choosing the best model with different forecasting information in the actual flood forecasting. The design method and concrete practice of the dissertation is simple and effective. And a new approach is explored to make real time correction in the real-time flood forecasting system...