Pre-evaluation On Navigation Safety In Tianjin Port Compound Seaway

Tianjin Port is the transportation hub of the northern and northwesten regions, its direct and indirect economy radiation hinterland accounts for about half of the national land. Along with the radiation hinterland's rapid economic development, Tianjin Port seaway needs to be further broadened, in order to meet the development of the port capacity. At the same time, it is necessary to study navigation safety of the Tianjin Port seaway after boardening the seaway, to ensure the safety of the vessels and goods, to ensure the efficient operation of the port.This paper analyzes two basic principles of assessment method about the theory of fuzzy and gray system, studys the possible combination rule, sums up the general model of the gray-fuzzy evaluation method, and proposes to the improved gray-fuzzy evaluation model which adapts to multiple criteria, multi-level measurement system.In addition, this paper investigates and analysis navigation environment of Tianjin Port seaway, describes the design plan of compound seaway, forecasts the development of the vessel's quantity and ship type and port capacity, hands out questionnaires, investigates environmental degree of risk indexes of navigation safety of Tianjin Port compound seaway. According to domestic and foreign simulation results about navigation environment and relevant evaluation studies, this paper sets various index quantitative criterias. Based on widely calling for experts'advice, this paper utilizes AHP to determine index weights, gets a evaluating result about navigation safety of Tianjin Port compound seaway by the improved gray-fuzzy model.The completion of this study enriches the research in the field of maritime safety system. It has theoretical and practical significance to further planning and improvement of Tianjin Port seaway.