| The urgency and necessity for improving the hotbox prediction accuracy of the Trace Hotbox Detection System (THDS) are presented in this dissertation in view of the special role, technical characteristics and transportation demands of da-qin line in Chinese heavy load railway construction, which begins with the inadaptation and lag between the application priciples formed during the historical development course of the Infrared Hotbox Detection System and the requirement of heavy railway and high speed development. The primary factor affecting the application level of THDS in da-qin line is expounded by using large amounts of field data and typical examples on the basis of infrared temperature measurement system theory and the operating principles of THDS. The fundamental cause of the problem is analyzed and demonstrated in detail in terms of the operating principle of the system.It is put forward by taking measurs of breaking the system structure and design idea, establishing and improving the mathematical model of the hotbox discrimination to raise the application level of THDS in da-qin line significantly. Meanwhile, the direction and suggestion to the application level of THDS are further perfected under fully utilizing the predict information of other Ts in the Security Prediction System of Vehicle Operation (is called 5T system for short). The research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly, according to analyzing and demonstrating the reasons for misreporting the hotbox of heavy vehicles such as C76 and C80, the method of rolling and slipping wheel base distinguishing is proposed and the solution to the mathematical model of hotbox discrimination for specific vehicle types is established. Secondly, the methods to improve the bearing sealing unit and the dual-angle bottom detection are introduced through analyzing and demonstrating the reasons for misreporting the hotbox caused by the heat of the seal ring.Then, by means of analyzing and demonstrating the reasons for misreporting the hotbox when the tepefaction hotbox tracking for upgrade, and predictions to the hotbox of empty vehicles are more than those of full vehicles, the solution is given, which modifies the mathematical model of tracking hotbox discrimination with distinguishing the vehicle is empty or full. Next, by means of analyzing and demonstrating the reasons of prediction numbers for the hotbox affected by the change of season, circumstance and temperature, the method for adding the temperature adjustment coefficient is presented. Furthermore, after analyzing and demonstrating the hidden danger with rapid development of fault heat of rolling bearings, measures to establish the mathematical model of hotbox discrimination with the prevention of abrupt change and increase the densities of souding stations are taken. Finally, in accordance with analyzing and demonstrating the system functions of 5T, the relevance between THDS and other Ts, as well as the feasibility of information sharing, the new viewpoint is put forward. This point uses THDS to play a role in the Security Prediction System of Vehicle Operation so that the security gateway moved forward, from which the comprehensive prevention idea is used, and the whole superiority of the vehicle security prevention system is exerted. |