Study On Ship Traffic Volume Prediction Method Based On Four-stage Method

Since the People's Republic of China established 60 years, our state's shipping business has achieved great development. Currently, our state's merchant ships has reached more than 100 states and 400 ports all over the world. It can be said that our state has built a considerable scale of water transport system basically. With the development of our state's water transport, the density of channel is increasing. It has brought lots of traffic jams and accidents. In order to ensure the effective development of shipping traffic, our state should formulate a reasonable water transport development strategy. And, vessel traffic volume is the major basis for the future water transport development strategy. It has great significance for the development orientation of the channels, the determination of the scale of channel infrastructure, the formulation of channel management strategy and so on.There are a lot of models and methods of ship traffic prediction, but all of them only response traffic development law of a channel and don't demonstrate the influence of the change of the channel conditions. "Four-stage method" is a matured prediction method in highway net research, which can solve the highway traffic demand prediction problem, so that it is took in ship traffic prediction research.The four-stage traffic analysis method is so matured prediction ideological and simple model that it always plays a leading role in the traffic analysis history and the most widely used model system in the world so far.Meanwhile, some matured software is developed based on four-stage traffic analysis method, such as transcad that is a general planning software, so, the matured four-stage method is used in ship traffic prediction research in this paper.Firstly, it explains the definitions and relationships of vessel traffic flow and traffic volume. Then it analyzes the basic features and basic principles of vessel traffic flow forecasting. Vessel traffic flow forecasting is adapt to the basic characteristics of predicted science, it also has its own characteristics, such as the impact of vessel traffic flow changes in complex factors. It is difficult to describe the variation of traffic flow using a single model. Ship traffic flow forecast is a conditional macro and micro forecasting, the forecasting process involves many aspects such as the port characteristics and the behavioral of ship. This paper proposed the concepts and ideas of four-stage method to forecast ship traffic based on analysis of the current vessel flow combined forecasting method.Secondly, this article discusses the idea and steps of" Study on ship traffic volume prediction method based on four-stage method", including five parts such as the preparatory work, generate forecast freight, cargo distribution prediction, forecasting the development of ship and the ship traffic distribution in channel. This paper also presents the corresponding forecasting methods and models. It make an application examples to test prediction model. This case is Shenzhen Port, select the new channel to predict inflation target Tonggu application of the "four-stage method based on vessel traffic prediction method", where the relevant Tonggu Channel waters forecast and predict results obtained.Finally, this paper makes analysis and evaluation of research center, research process and research results, and prospects the application of the four-stage method of shipping traffic forecasting.