Research On Intelligent Traffic Organization Of Restricted Channel Ships Under Multi-factor Constraints

At present,the trend of economic and trade globalization is irreversible,and goods for international trade are mainly accomplished by waterway transportation.The 19 th session of National Congress of the CPC clearly pointed out that it is necessary to concentrate on planning a grand blueprint for the construction of "Transportation Power" and "Maritime Power".Under the guidance of these strategies,China's shipping industry development and port infrastructure construction are in full swing.Some ports build restricted channels to regulate the navigation order of ships.After the completion of the restricted channel construction,it will become the only way for ships of different scales and types to enter/exit the port.If the traffic organization is improper,it will reduce the navigation efficiency of the restricted channel and cause waste of water-area resources;In addition,once a water traffic accident occurs in a restricted channel,it will cause incalculable losses such as restricted channel operation,water environment pollution,casualties and so on.Taking the main channel of Dongying Port Area as an example,and conducts research on the intelligent traffic organization of the restricted channel ships under multi-factor constraints.The purpose of the above research is to alleviate the complexity of the navigation environment of restricted waterways,improve the navigation efficiency of ships and reduce the probability of occurrence of water traffic accidents.This paper mainly carries out relevant research work based on the following aspects:Firstly,ship traffic flow characteristics analysis and prediction model construction for restricted channels.Construct a restricted channel characterization model and a traffic flow characterization model,and using statistical methods to analyze ship traffic flow characteristics in restricted channel waters;Based on the BP-Markov model,Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)was introduced to optimize the model,and the PSO optimized BP-Markov ship traffic flow prediction model is obtained.Apply this model to the prediction of typical restricted channel ship traffic flow,the results show: the BP-Markov model optimized by PSO is better than BP neural network model,and the prediction accuracy is improved from 72.8358% to 84.5403%,which verifies the rationality and accuracy of the model.Secondly,operation mechanism analysis and transit capacity model construction for restricted channel.According to the actual situation of the restricted channel waters,the rules of the restricted channel operation including the double line navigation rules,the sailing rules for ships sailing through restricted channel,and the priority rules for ships enter/exit port are summarized;By analyzing several factors including the mechanism of ship-ship speed influence in restricted channel,the method of determining safe speed in restricted channel is obtained;Constructing a restricted channel safety spacing determination model,and develop restricted channel safety spacing calculation software,which can facilitate the ship driver to quickly calculate the horizontal and vertical safety spacing of the ship;Based on the analysis of the queuing system for port navigation operations,optimize the represents ship type parameters and channel capacity parameters in the channel transit capacity queuing model,and the queuing theory model of restricted channel transit capacity based on parameter optimization is constructed.Finally,designed a framework for intelligent traffic organization of restricted channel ships under multi-factor constraints.Summarize five factors affecting ship traffic organization in restricted channel and explains the multi-factor constraint mechanism,intelligent mechanism in the intelligent traffic organization of restricted channel ships;Designed a framework for intelligent traffic organization of restricted channel ships under multi-factor constraints,and the restricted channel intelligent ship traffic organization is carried out from the three aspects of ship traffic flow characteristics overall grasp,organization principle and process control.This paper conducts research on the intelligent traffic organization of restricted channel ships,the research results will provide the theoretical basis and solution for the relevant authority to carry out VTS intelligent management,restricted channel ship traffic organization and so on.At the same time,it is also a useful exploration for standardizing the order of ship traffic flow and improving the navigation efficiency of channels.