Study Of Water Resources Carring Capacity Based On System Dynamics Model In Huolinguole City

Huolinguole City,which is in a stage of rapid development,is a resource-induced water shortage city.Above all,introducing the overview of study area,using Support Vector Machine Algorithm to appraise the regional surface water environmental quality.On the basis of combine the economic social situation and the development strategy of the Huolinguole City,analysis the supply and demand trend of the water resources, Based on this,taking the water supply and demand ratio as the core,establish the carrying capacity SD model of water resource of Huolinguole under the system dynamics software vensim, Simulate and analysis the carrying capacity of 2006-2030′s water resources in Huolinguole. The main contents include:(1) Summary the basic theory of water carrying capacity,the current research situation briefly,the methods,the consensus of carrying capacity in water resources and the main problems;(2) To classify the 15 surface water quality monitoring sections data, using Support Vector Machine Algorithm, on the basis of the WEKA software.(3) Analysis the utilization of water resources and problems of Huolinguole, take 2005 as the base level and analysis the balance of water supply and demand by selecting 2010,2020,2030 as the recent,medium,long-term level.(4) Based on the theory and the basic steps of system dynamics to solve problem, as well as the analysis of the three subsystems of water resources,social economy and ecological environment of Huolinguole,take the balance of supply and demand of water resources as the core and establish the model of system dynamics of carrying capacity of water resource of Huolinguole under the vensim software;(5) Use the model been established , select the control variables and design two programs to predict the carrying capacity of water resources of Huolinguole City. Finally, propose the superficial measures that is corresponding to improve water resource of Huolinguole City.