Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Zhengzhou City Based On SD-EF Model

As China's national central city and important node city of“One Belt,One Road”,the development of Zhengzhou City has received common attention from the whole country and even the whole world.However,the contradiction between its current status of mixed water shortage and its development planning has intensified.Under the background of the implementation of the national water resources carrying capacity monitoring and early warning mechanism construction,Studying the water resources carrying capacity of Zhengzhou City can coordinate the complex relationship between water resources and urban development,social progress and ecological environment construction in Zhengzhou City,and provide theoretical basis and reasonable suggestions for the efficient development and utilization of water resources.At present,there are many methods for evaluating water resources carrying capacity,combining the advantages and disadvantages of these methods,this paper combines the disciplines of ecology,resources and environment,systems science,etc.For effectively evaluating the utilization of natural resources,Ecological Footprint method is selected to study the water resources carrying capacity of Zhengzhou City,and two conditions of water volume adjustment,considering the water volume or not,is proposed.Next,combine the ecological footprint model with the system dynamics model.Introduce the concept of social water resources,and build the SD-EF model of water resources carrying capacity in Zhengzhou with the help of Vensim-Dss software platform,and obtain the following research results.(1)Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Zhengzhou City Based on Ecological Footprint Model.Analysis of current situation of water resources carrying capacity of Zhengzhou City from 2007 to 2016 under different conditions through ecological footprint model.The results show that under the two conditions,the per capita water resources carrying capacity,per capita water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological deficit of Zhengzhou City show a downward trend.Under the conditions of not considering the amount of water to be diverted and considering the amount of water to be diverted,the per capita water resources carrying capacity of Zhengzhou City is very different,and the latter is 50.70% higher than the former.However,the ecological deficit has not changed much,and the latter has only decreased by 5.54% compared with the former.(2)Construction of SD-EF Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Zhengzhou City.Combining water resources subsystem,population development subsystem,ecological environment subsystem and economic development subsystem,SD-EF model of water resources carrying capacity in Zhengzhou City is established,.determine model equations based on physical relationships or empirical formulas between variables,determine system parameters based on relevant policy and experience values.Finally,the system structure rationality test,historical test and sensitivity test are used to prove credibility and effectiveness.(3)Simulation Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Zhengzhou City.This paper set up four scenarios of status trend,green water saving,economic development and comprehensive response,Carrying out SD-EF model calculation of water resources carrying capacity,and obtaining simulation results of four schemes.Through comparative analysis,the water resources ecological deficit is the largest in the current trend-oriented scheme,and the water pressure is the largest.The green water-saving scheme has the largest water resources carrying capacity,but the stamina is insufficient and cannot be developed for a long time.The economic development plan has the smallest water resources carrying capacity,but the 10,000 yuan GDP water resources have the smallest ecological footprint and the water resource utilization rate is high;The comprehensive response scheme is the best of the four schemes.The scheme is that the ecological footprint and ecological deficit of the four scenarios are the smallest,so the water pressure is the smallest,and the ecological footprint of the 10,000-yuan GDP water resources is small.Water use efficiency is higher and there is still potential for development.(4)Countermeasures for Strengthening Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Zhengzhou City.This paper proposes countermeasures to enhance the water resources carrying capacity of Zhengzhou City:(1)By vigorously promoting water-saving facilities and technologies,increasing water prices and other measures to enhance the water-saving awareness of the whole society,thereby saving water resources.(2)Appropriately reducing the proportion of urban primary and secondary production,increasing the proportion of tertiary production,and using the tertiary industry as the main development industry,adjusting the industrial structure,and alleviating the pressure on urban water use.(3)Improving urban infrastructure and rainwater utilization,introducing advanced sewage treatment equipment and technology,making sewage resources,controlling black and odorous water bodies,projecting surface water and groundwater from pollution,and improving ecological environment.(4)Accelerating the construction of water storage projects and water system connectivity projects,and effectively solving the problem of uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in Zhengzhou City.