Reliability Of Ammunition Storage Research In Island Environment Based On Bayes Method

As an important defense stockpiles, with a features of wide and lager range of storage, complex storage environments, vulnerability to temperature, humidity and various environmental factors, ammunition quality will change in the storage process. Currently assessing the quality of storage ammunition, often used to extract a small amount of ammunition from time to time samples for live target practice to test its reliability. Identification of the current test methods used in the classic, in the case of fewer samples to assess the reliability of the ammunition storage, ammunition storage can not be a true reflection of the overall situation. The use of Bayes methods can make full use of prior information, in the case of small sample the reliability assessment, obtain satisfactory identification results. In this paper, the use of Bayes approach to assessing the reliability of munitions storage in the island environment, primarily of the following:First, this paper under the guidance of reliability theory and the characteristics of long-term storage for ammunition, ammunition storage reliability proposed the concept of clear standards for ammunition storage reliability. On this basis, describes the currently used reliability of assessment methods, and compare the merits of the application of Bayes methods.Then, for the island special environment of the island environment of various factors on storage of ammunition.With emphasis on temperature, humidity and salt spray and other factors were analyzed, obtained in different under the influence of environmental factors on the ammunition storage reliability of the results.Then, using Bayes method, in small sample conditions, to evaluate the reliability of the ammunition storage, based on Bayes theory date were pretreatment, obtain reliability storage in the given point of time and the distribution of storage life, in order to achieve a reasonable assessment of the reliability of their storage and forecasting.Finally, in the island environment, the problem of ammunition storage, ammunition storage proposed to enhance reliability and extend the life of the measures ammunition storage methods, and gives some suggestions.