The Evaluation On The Affection Of The Future Climate Change On The Maize Production In China

The global climate is experiencing a distinct change for almost a century, with global wanner as the main characteristic, and the total climate change trend of China is nearly accordant with the change of the world. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive departments for climate change. China is not only a developing county, but also a big country economically based on the agriculture, therefore, foodstuff security affects the social stabilization and the economic development of finely and sustained directly. Maize, as one of the main three foodstuff crops, has important status in the foodstuff productivity in China. There are some good characteristics about high photo efficiency, low consume and big increase production potential in maize productivity, and the proportion of maize occupy the first in the increase production aim in 2000. So it is important that evaluating the affection of future climate change for maize production .In this paper, the CERES-Maize (Crop-Environmment Resourse Syntheses system ) was calibrated and validated firstly, afterwards the climate scenarios made by PRECIS(Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) were input into the CERES-Maize model to validation the simulating ability of PRECIS. Based on the above two models, the meteorological data of Baseline (1961 1990), A2 (2071—2079), and B2 (2071²090) exported directly by PRECIS were used in crop model to output yield, and the number of growth date of 11 maize stations in the future climate changed. At last, the affection of future climate changed for maize production was evaluated. This model considered many factors affecting the growth of maize, such as irrigation, rainfeed, CO₂ fertilization and predating the planting date by 5 days and 10 days when analyzing the change of yield and period duration. It further indicated how the production of maize was affected by the increase of CO₂ and PAR by using the data collected from the field experiment in Changping Experimental Station of China Agricultural Academy of Sciences. The results showed that, the CERES-Maize model is applicable to evaluate the climate change affecting the maize production in China, and PRECIS could offer meteorology data for CERES-Maize model. If the affection of climate change was the only factor taken into account, the production of the maize in northeast spring maize zone mostly will reduce , but which in huanghuaihai summer maize zone will increase, and the number of growth period will shorten mostly in all zones. Hoever, if CO₂ fertilization was considered and required water was filled in future climate change, the yield of maize will increase in all zones. It doesn't have great effect to yield of maize under the condition of predating the planting date. The yield of maize was decresed under the condition of rainfeed. The number of growth date is affected mainly by the predation of planting date in all zones. Also, the number of growth date shortened more with the predation of planting date in Huanghuaihai summer maize zone, while it prolonged more with the predation of planting date in northeast spring maize zone.