Evaluation Of The Climate Resources And Climate Suitability In Northeast China Under Climate Change

Based on daily meteorological data of Northeast China from1971to2000， dailymeteorological data from1951to2100simulated by RegCM3given by National ClimateCenter. Revised the model data, Analysis of elements of the major agro-climatic resources in theNortheast China Corn Season; based on the previous research to establish the Northeast Chinamaize climate suitability model, Calculation and analysis temperature suitability, watersuitability, light suitability and climate suitability of the maize at different developmentalstages and the whole growth period from1951to2100; according to the changes inagricultural climate resources and climate suitability. Analysis the impact of climatechange on maize growth.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)1951-2100, the warming rate of the five periods of the three northeasternprovinces are:-0.04℃/10a,0.43℃/10a,0.70℃/10a,0.61℃/10a,0.41℃/10a;2000-2100,thewarming rate is0.56℃/10a, higher than the nearly54-year warming rate (0.25℃/10a), theannual average temperature from1981to2010as basic temperature,2011-2100the annualaverage temperature rise of3.34℃in Northeast China. There are large differences inannual in1951-2070no significant changes compare with the average precipitation in1981-2010, and the annual precipitation increased slightly in2071-2100. From April toSeptember the precipitation in different regional is differences, and large differences indifferent periods;2011-2100in Northeast China the precipitation has negative departurecompare with average precipitation from1981to2010, in the crop growth period theprecipitation is decreased slightly.1951-1980, the total net radiation no significantchange,from1981to2100net radiation is increase obvious, and the net radiation increaserate is largest in2041-2070in Northeast China.(2)1951-2100, the sowing date is advance under climate warming, compared with1981-2010, the corn suitable sowing date generally advance more than9d from2071to2100and the first frost date as the climate warming constantly postponed, therefore, thenumber of days about the maize potential growing season is creasing;2011-2100, InNortheast China the incerase rate of the potential maize growing season days is7.8d/10a;active accumulated temperature≥10°C has significantly increasing trend, infive periods accumulated temperature trend rate are:-3.0℃d/10a,67.39℃d/10a,106.1℃d/10a,119.7℃d/10a,77.6℃d/10a.(3) In1951-2100,temperature suitability of maize from seeding to tasseling is between0.41-1in Northeast China, the area of high-value between0.91-1continue north eastwardexpansion, heat conditions are suitable for corn planting to tasseling stage of growth, but atstage of tasseling to mature, suitable temperature in the region between0.81-1continuemove to north and the eastward, in the southern and western regions the temperature isgradually decreased to0.6, heat conditions are conducive to the growth at the high latitudesregion, the central and western Jilin Province and Liaoning Province, as increase of heatresources, the maize will impact of hot weather gradually. In most parts of Northeast China,the water suitable is between0.81-1, Water conditions is able to better meet the water needs in growth periods of maize,but in the western region the precipitation is relativelysmall and high temperature, watersuitability is lower than the eastern region, is less than0.6. Light suitability is between0.81-1in most parts of the Northeast China, the lightcondition is appropriate for the growth of maize.(4) The areas has high value of climate suitable between0.91-1.0continue movementto north and eastward;but in Liaoning Province (except the east of Liaoning Province)andwestern Jilin Province, climate suitable will gradually reduce; the climate suitable of maizeincreasd in beginning then decreases, while in Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Provinceclimate suitable of maize is gradually increased.(5) With the increase of the heat conditions, high temperatures in the growth of maizehave an impact, therefore, under the conditions of heat conditions allows, make LiaoningProvince as the experimental points, to adjust the suitable sowing data of corn, so that theclimatic conditions more suitable for the growth of maize.(a) the climate suitable of cornin the whole growth period in the eastern of Liaoning Province has no significant changeas the sowing date change, little effect on corn growth of the hot weather in the region, therefore,should not carry out adjustment of sowing date.(b) the southern and western LiaoningProvince, With the increase in the number of adjustment days gradually to avoid the influence ofhigh temperatures on the growth of corn tasseling-mature stage, the temperature suitability isincrease,in southern Liaoning Province and western Liaoning Province when sowing datesis adjusted30-40days, the climate conditions are more favorable to the growth of maize.(c) The central and northern Liaoning Province, which during adjustment of sowing dateago15a,the climate suitability of maize is no significant difference; after2070, when thesowing date postponed to40-50d, it has high climatic suitability.