Study Of Cone Production Prediction For Scotch Pine In The Sandy Area

Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica is fine tree for the windproof solid sand and the forestation. In recent years, with the seedling area of the Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica expanded unceasingly, the seed resources became its restriction factor. We take it's hometown -Honghuaerji as the test base and carry on the on-the-spot investigation to fruiting rule of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica on sandy land in order to complete the seed adjustment. We carry on the forecast to Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica's output by using the partial investigating material of predecessors. Production prediction are studied from the different angle by using different method. According to the material demonstrated, fruiting quantity of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica has close correlation with tree diameter size at chest height. We carry on the forecast to the Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica single fruiting quantity by using the average standard wooden method, taking the tree diameter at chest height as independent variable from the Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica own growth condition and the growth condition. Because the Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica solid not only is limited by own conditions, at the same time is effected greatly by external environment, therefore, the establishment model using the even standard wooden method can only be able to forecast fruiting ability of various diameters level . The climatic conditions are an important influence factor of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica fruiting quantity. The Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica experiences for 26 months from the flowered anlage producing to the mature of cone, during the period the influence of climatic factors is very big. We carries on factor screening by using the anomalous mark law, the method of correlation coefficient and the method of quality correlation coefficient, and then use the SPSS statistics software to carry on the correlation and the regression analysis. The result showed that climate influence of previous year June is biggest for the cone mature. So we has established the production prediction model by using the warm rain coefficient of cone mature previous year June and June warm and damp coefficient separately. These two models indicated that the dry and clear warm climatic conditions are advantageous for fruiting in June when the Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica is in meiosis. Because the distribution of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica cone has rule in the crown, we carry on the forecast to the output by using the method of fruiting information section. Through the correlation analysis we discover that the cone number of 5 ~ 7 turns has close correlation with the entire cone number, therefore we take 5-7 turns as fruiting information section. We obtain the information section law production prediction model in 2004 and 2005 by carrying on the regression analysis of taking fruiting information section cone number as independent variable and entire cone number as the dependent variable. We can obtain the synthesis information section law productionprediction model by averaging them and the model has high forecast precision.