Study On Agriculture Drought Disaster Vulnerability In Leizhou Peninsula

Drought is a main agriculture disaster in Leizhou Peninsula with high frequency, wide area, large intensity and heavy losses. It effects unavailable on the subtropical agricultural foundation and regional sustainable development. There are many factors which influence the disaster such as rich summer precipitation , intense winter-spring evaporation, insufficient irrigation, inefficient water using ,irrational plant structure. Winter and spring drought is common in Leizhou Peninsula and the southern is the most serious.Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) is systematically analyzed on the basis of forming factors. An appraisement index system is established according to AHP and the condition of Leizhou Peninsula. Drought index, irrigation index, GDP, peasant'income are the most important among the system. A database about geographic information and natural disaster of Leizhou Peninsula is built for the appraisement of ADDV. Original data comes from field investigation and statistical information. Index weights are defined by the judgment matrix. ADDV of Leizhou Peninsula during 1962～2004 period is evaluated by the AHP and divided into three grades, i.e. low, middle and high grades.ADDV is fluctuant decreased during the 43 years. ADDV is the highest in the early-middle stages of 1960'and 1980'and the lowest in the late stages of 1970'. ADDV has a middle grade trend since 1985, especially in 21 century. The regional difference of ADDV is obvious in Leizhou Peninsula. Xuwen county ,Leizhou city, Suixi county in the southern is higher than Wuchuan city, Zhanjian city, Lianjiang city in the northern. The ADDV influence factors can be classified into two types, susceptibility and restoration. ADDV change result from their interaction and increases with the restoration and decreases with the susceptibility.