Kangbao County Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Assessment

Kangbao County which is located in Bashang Plateau, Hebei province, belongs to the typical steppe zone and semi-arid temperate zone, whose agricultural production is given priority to animal husbandry in history, forms a new farming-pastoral pattern in fanning after the founding of the prc. In the County drought prevails almost every year which seriously affects the local agricultural production and Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) is larger.This paper based on natural geography,regional natural disaster theory and so on, selected Kangbao County as the evaluation object of Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) and made the following analysis:first, this paper carried on the analysis to the regional situation, the drought characteristics, drought disaster mechanism and agricultural drought disaster. Second, this paper constructed the index system about assessment of Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV), established mathematical model of assessment of Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) and did spatial distribution analysis of Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) for each villages and towns of Kangbao County. First of all, the paper analyzed the influence of natural ecological factors and social economic factors on Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV), selected the vulnerability index and normalized the index data; Secondly, the paper adopted the AHP and experted scoring method, using data analysis software Mathematica to construct the judgment matrix, and obtained indexes weights; Finally, Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) was calculated by using mathematical model and spatial distribution maps were obtained by means of geographical information analysis software ARCGIS9.0. Third, the paper using the Semi-structured Interview of Participatory Rural Appraisal, through direct contact with government departments and the mass of peasants, got real and reliable data, and then analysed the time dynamic change of vulnerability using statistical data of natural ecological and social economic indicators from1995to2009before and after returning farmland to forest. Fourth, the region development history in Kangbao County, the current ecological problems and agricultural problems were analysed.Through the above analysis, this paper drawed the following conclusion:drought was the major natural disaster in Kangbao County affecting agricultural activities and the Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) in disaster drivers environment was larger; the Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) in this County in the spatial distribution was pockety, in which the vulnerability on northern hilly areas including Zhaoyang River, Manddetang and tunkenxiang was the largest but they were the least in Kangbaozhen and Tuchengzi. The integrated Agriculture drought disaster vulnerability (ADDV) in Kangbao County after the construction of ecological engineering showed a downward trend. With the development of economic stability and the improvement of environment, economic and social vulnerability had a larger decrease and natural ecological vulnerability showed a gentle downward trend; Agricultural production was not reasonable and the county had serious ecological problems, which needed to adjust land use structure further,developed organic farming, protected the ecological environment and promoted the sustainable development of agriculture.