The Forecast Early Warning Research And Concrete Evidence Analysis About Production Of Soybean In Hei Longjiang Province

The soybean industry is a pillar industry in Heilongjiang Province, and is the most primary component in the agricultural economy in Heilongjiang Province; it plays a significant role in setting-up soybeans produce prediction and early warning research system for smooth development of the soybean industry in Heilongjiang Province. On the basis of analysis of the fluctuation of Heilongjiang Province soybean output, this text does some research on systematic prediction, early warning research work of Heilongjiang Province soybeans. The research contents include the follows several major aspects:1.With regard of analyzing the history deeply ,foundation and current development situation of Heilongjiang Province soybeans and producing, fluctuating economic cycle theory, it has confirmed Heilongjiang Province soybean fluctuation coefficient of gross output, has divided the soybean production situation in Heilongjiang Province into 6 cycles since 1980 and has summarized the characteristics of cycles , and analyzed the cause of soybean output in terms of supply and demand; it set up Heilongjiang Province soybean logistic trend prediction model of per unit area yield , utilized the linear programming method to confirm the model parameter and completed the prediction of per unit area yield of soybean to the year pf 2010 . Set up the prediction model of the soybean gross output in Heilongjiang Province in Gray theory, employed Markov state shift matrix to revise the model, compared this with the old one, it proved the later has obvious superiority. It finally utilized this method to predict the output of Heilongjiang Province in the next 3 years.2. According to early warning theory and preferred principle of index system, it set up the alerting early warning index system of Heilongjiang Province soybean produce including alert situation, alert source. It utilized the time difference relevant analytic approach to alert to promise index go on , go ahead of the rest , move ahead simultaneously , lag behind classification of properties, and has distinguished the indexes on different lag time of reflecting the production safety of soybean function.3. This text, on the basis of finishing the index chosen and classified, did the research on Heilongjiang Province soybeans production through multi-method of pre-waning such as various statistics, indexes and methods. In counting pre-warning , adopted systematic analytic approach to build 5 kinds of alert limits of index on Heilongjiang Province soybean produce alert situation as well as confirmed the corresponding alert degrees , and introduced feedback to confirm the ahead of...