The Study Of Mariculture Output And Pollution Relations In Fujian

The paper started from ocean meteorology and physiology, the affecting degree of eleven seawater pollution factors on the output of mariculture in Fujian province, included Fuzhou, Xiamen, Putain, Quangzhou, Zhangzhou and Ningde were investigated, the seawater pllution and the output of mariculture in the future in China, Fujian province and six areas mentioned were forecasted, the mariculture cultivated areas in Fujian were programmed, some measures preventing damage by seawater pollution were put forward, and the following results were come out.(1) The results of correlation analysis among seawater pollution factors and between the factors and the output of mariculture by stepwise regression showed that it is not linearly correlative between elevn factors of seawater, all the coefficients among eleven factors were not prominent; when ten seawater factors were allowed into the model for stepwise regress analysis, there are nine seawater factors that are greatest prominent to the output of mariculture, and another one is prominent to the output of mariculture. the partical correlation between eleven seawater factors and the output ofmariculture were gradated as x₅ > x₉ > x₂ > x₁₁ > x₆ > x₁₀ > x₄ > x₁ > x₃ > x₈．That is the partial correlation coefficient between the ( x₅ ) and output of mariculture was the greatest, the best prominent and negative; the second was ( x₉ ), but ( x₈ ) was the least. These results are similar to thepath analysis in many aspects.Therefore, the ( x₅) is critical one of the factors affected the output ofmariculture suffered from seawater pollution disaster.(2) The result of prediction of mariculture output model established by exponent thrice smoothness model showed that the forecasted values were close to factual value in most years except for a few years, the prediction models were good, and the models could forecast the output of mariculture in the future years. The predicted values were following:in China, x₂₀₀₅ = 7．868t/ha, x₂₀₀₆ = 7．488t/ha, x₂₀₀₇ = 7．034t/ha;in Fujian province, x₂₀₀₆ = 20．125t/ha, x₂₀₀₇ = 19．730t/ha, x₂₀₀₈ = 19．178t/ha;in Fuzhou city, x₂₀₀₆ = 23．711t/ha, x₂₀₀₇ = 23．006t/ha, x₂₀₀₈ = 22．062t/ha;in Xiamen city, x₂₀₀₆ = 12．598t/ha, x₂₀₀₇ = 12．558t/ha, x₂₀₀₈ = 12．452t/ha;in Putian city, x₂₀₀₆ = 27．599t/ha, x₂₀₀₇ = 26．045t/ha, x₂₀₀₈ = 24．135t/ha;in Quanzhou city, x₂₀₀₆ = 10．806t/ha, x₂₀₀₇ = 12．607t/ha, x₂₀₀₈ = 14．969t/ha; in Zhangzhou city, x₂₀₀₆ = 22．122t/ha, x₂₀₀₇ = 22．403t/ha, x₂₀₀₈ = 22．566t/ha;in Ningde city, x₂₀₀₆ = 11．204t/ha, x₂₀₀₇ = 10．044t/ha, x₂₀₀₈ = 8．697t/ha(3) The study on measures preventing damage by seawater pollution showed that before cultivating, it was necessary to take exercises for mariculture, and in cultivating, it was critical to prevent pollution and remedy measures should be taken to reduce economy loss after mariculture suffered seawater pollution. Some suggests of polluted areas were put forward.