The Game Theory Analying On Giant Pandas' Survival Disturbance Factors In Taibai Mountain Nature Reserve

Background: Taibai Mountain Nature Reserve is the northern boundary of giant pandas'distribution range.As long time's natural and human disturbance, the giant panda survival has been severely affected. the research about disturbance remains in the single-factor evalution,but the disturbance factors is complex and diverse. The comprehensive analysis of series of complex factors is feasibility and necessity. During the winter in 2006 and spring-summer in 2007,field investigations were conducted in Huangbaiyuan and Houzhenzi area ,Both of which lie in the core area of National Taibai Mountain Nature Reserve .To reveal the disturbance factors and collected the data of the economy of The population in the surrounding community, interviewed the local people with the PRA survey.Objective: Based on the reference to Giant Panda habitat investigations at home and abroad,and based on the characteristics of Taibai Mountain Nature Reserve,the unique of living environment of giant panda,This paper gives a detailed analysis about the relationship between disturbance factors and the survival of giant pandas,and the reasons of causing all of the disturbance factors,then Identifies and gives a comprehensive analysis about the most serious factors.Methods: Several statistical methods are applied to rigorous and in-depth data analysis as follows:â‘ firstly,all of the disturbance factors and elevation are analysised by the frequency method,then screening the main factors by factor analysis,the last ,against the sampling points in different altitude and line, the most serious interference comprehensive and elevation of the region are identified by projection pursuit model,which is used for the first time .â‘¡Based on interviews with villagers and PRA survey,the data about local people's perceptions and attitude orientation were analysised by binary logistic regression.â‘¢The view of the above analysis,combinated with the developed countries protected area management strategies, From the perspective of game theory,this paper expounded systematically the conflicts and The main problems between management of Nature Reserve and Surrounding communities . Through rational way to Discuss, Their conflicts can be analysis by the method of Nash- equilibrium to achieve a win-win situation.Results:1. The sample-line were 13 in in the core area of National Taibai Mountain Nature Reserve,the main disturbance factors is selected, bamboo blooming and harvest bamboo ,tour are the most serious factors.2. Considered the disturbance factors , factor analysis was gived in view of the geographical differences in Taibai Mountain Giant Panda habitat, and the disturbance factors in different regions, the result were , bamboo blooming and harvest bamboo,poaching the most serious factors in Huangbaiyuan area,but bamboo blooming and tour the most serious factors in Houzhenzi area.3. Considered all of the sample-lines, the analysis about different sample-line and elevation is used by projection pursuit model,which was used for the first time,the result showed: the disturbance in Houzhenzi is more serious than Huangbaiyuan . In Houzhenzi area ,the disturbance in Wanquangou and Longdougou are serious,the disturbance elevation is in 1700-2400, In Huangbaiyuan area the disturbance in Erzikai river and Hantang river are serious, the disturbance elevation is in 2200-2500.4. Considered the cause of human disturbance,based on the local population and economy, Though binary logistic regression analysis about the first-hand information, the result showed that local people's gender and education are the most important factors which affect their perceptions and attitude orientation. but many conflicts are found in the survey.According to the survey results and the actual situation.5. Considered the habitat disturbance and the cause of the disturbance, Through rational way to Discuss, Their conflicts can be analysis by the method of Nash- equilibrium to achieve a win-win situation .Conclusions:1. Bamboo blooming,tour and harvest bamboo are the most serious factors in Tbaibai Mountain Nature Reserve, the disturbance in Houzhenzi is more serious than Huangbaiyuan.2. local people's education is the most important factor which affect their perceptions and attitude orientation. Second, gender and profession.