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Impacts Of Climate Change To Maize Production And Adaptability Analysis In China

Posted on:2009-12-30Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y N HuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2143360245965017Subject:Science of meteorology
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Climate change is the climate factor for several decades or longer period of time the long-term results of any systemic changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report issued in the more clear that the global average temperature increase of more than 90 percent possibility is because of the man-made the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. During 1906-2005 global mean surface temperature rose higher (0.74±0.18)℃. The current global climate is experiencing a warming as the main characteristics of the significant changes. The impacts on economic and social development are the important challenges facing humanity. Therefore, impacts of these changes have been become an urgent need to address the major issues. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change and it is significant to evaluate impacts of climate change on maize (one of main three foodstuff crop).Field observations were used to calculate and calibrate the cultivar genetic parameters by put into CERES-Maize crop model. And crop model was verified with long-time data at several sites and short-time data at large scale. Then, after verification of the many sites 13 randomly selected representative sites were used to simulated and analyzed the yield changes under different weather condition in the future. They are conditions of the current climate Baseline (1961-1990) and the A2, B2 two climate scenarios 2020s, 2050s, 2080s of rainfed-maize and irrigated-maize. Comparative analysis of the simulation results and the evaluation of climate change on maize production effects were conducted. This article is also associated with breeding and cultivar introduction theory. Based on it, improved varieties and introduction of new varieties of corn were approached to adapt to climate change as corresponding countermeasures in the future.This paper is mainly to use the weather data simulated by PRECIS of the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios to validate the linkage approach of PRECIS outputs with crop model. And then the weather data of 2020s(2011-2040 ), 2050 s (2041-2070) and 2080 s (2071-2100), together with 13 sites maize observation data were put into crop model to calculate the yield changed under different scenarios and different water conditions. On this basis for corn production to future climate change adaptation measures were discussed.Conclusion were as follows:Most simulated yield is declining under future climate conditions with both A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emissions scenarios, except for a small number of individual site in 2020s. And the minimum rate of yield change is in 2020s, the biggest period of change is 2080s. Irrigation on the production of corn is quite obvious. In considering the role of CO2 fertilizer efficiency, declining rate of rainfed maize production is smaller than irrigation's under both A2 and B2 two emissions scenarios. The declining rate is also smaller than that of rainfed maize without including CO2 fertilizer efficiency in simulation.Improved varieties was applied to adapt the changed climate in future 2050s, 2080s period at represent stations. Improving the values of genetic parameters P5(Thermal time from silking to physiological maturity) and G2(Maximum possible number of kernels per plant) would increase maize yield. Both improvement of parameters were more effective to increase maize yield at 2050s than that at 2080s. Therefore, changes of certain characteristics on species could reduce the negative effects to maize yield bought by climate environmental changes.Based on principle of agro-climatic similarity, species introduction could reduce the rate of production of corn, or even to increase production to production under A2, B2 scenarios with or without considering CO2 fertilizer effects.
Keywords/Search Tags:Climate change, Maize, Impacts assessment, Adaptability
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