A Study On Forecasting And Control Techniques For Apocheima Cinerarius

Based on forestry production in Heze,forecasting and control techniques for Apocheima cinerarius which an important pest occurs on poplar trees were studied in this paper.We made clear the life history of Apocheima cinerarius in Heze and its table of life story.Systemically observed on biological character and accruing role of Apocheima cinerarius in imago period,eggs period,grub period and chrysalises' period.The regression equations of parasites rate with temperature at various immature stages were given and made relational chart.We got to know the number of its eggs,egg period,egg growth temperature and calendar time as well.After observed larval stage,we offer a method that estimate its age through the breadth of its head carapace.We made deeply research on forecasting and control techniques,such as s calendar date method of predicting Apocheima cinerarius appearing,and the available base and moisture integral index methods of predicting Apocheima cinerarius number.We established prediction expressions and regress equation of status in occurring predicting period,as well the methods of available base expression and weather index in pest number predicting period. Based on systemically observation,determined the quantity forecast core data,i.e. survival coe,fficient and rainfall.Found out the relations of meteorological index and occurring tendency of Apocheima cinerarius-worm next year and established regression equation of leaf harm rate and the moisture content integral index of last year. Promulgated rules of its primary control factors to its increasing and decreasing of Apocheima cinerarius.Summarized the physical machinery preventing and controlling technology by carrying on the experiments of medicament drilling to a hole and crown atomization. Emphasized on the experiments developed by 6HY-25 smog machine to prevent and control Apocheima cinerarius,decreasing rate of five different treatments to insect hole achieved to 96.7—100%.Meanwhile contrast the effect through medicine drilling to a hole in the bough and the crown atomization,the result predicted that smog machine was the most effective measure in preventing and controlling Apocheima cinerarius at present which had many merits such as quick speed,high controlling effect,no using water source,low cost,simple operation,good effect and so on.,and the method solved the difficult problem of preventing and controlling big tree diseases under an hydrous condition and found out a new way coming into science market.Carried out scientific assessment to its economic efficiency using tree stem analysis preventing and controlling Apocheima cinerarius by the smog machine,one tree increases timber volume 0.03551m~3 every year on average after preventing and controlling, determined the tree diameter at breast height,and the growth process scientifically,made the contrast diagram of curves of diameter at chest height mass-accretion quantity and growth process various years.Direct-viewing reflected the growth process,difference, and table of timber volume,provided reliable data for the revision establishment poplar tree timber.Promoted the technology of preventing and controlling Apocheima cinerarius by smog machine,and assembled kinds of synthesis measure to prevent and controll Apocheima cinerarius.The technology had solved difficult problem which people wanted to solve but cannot solved.Extended area was large,effect was good,economic benefit were remarkable,the ecology social efficiency was obviously.Whole city extended 9.4479 million poplar trees,preventing and controlling rate reached 84.88%since 2000. According to 70%recovery ratio,increased timber 234,847 m~3 altogether,recalled the economic loss 140 million Yuan.