Simulation Of The Impacts Of Climate Change On Wheat Production In The Northwest Region

Global climate is warming at an unprecedented speed and the trend will continue in predictable future.Therefore,it is important to evaluate the impacts of climate change on agriculture.Wheat climatic yield in the next one hundred years was simulated by running the modified CERES-Wheat model under the climate change scenarios.There were three main sections in the thesis.All of them aimed to assess the effects of climate change on wheat production in northwest region.In the first section,the impacts of climate change in the past on the wheat production were evaluated during the wheat growing season in the studied region.In the second section,climate change scenarios including change under two scenarios were produced in future one hundred years.Trend of climate change in the next one hundred years(2010s～2100s)was prospected.In the third section,the emphasis was put on evaluation of the gradual effects of climate change in future one hundred years.All the three sections drew an outline of northwest region climate change affecting the wheat production at present and in future in the studied region.The results indicate that the temperature during wheat growing season in the past 50 years has sustainablely and significantly increased,in company with reduction of both the sunshine hours and rainy days.Warming winter,lack of sunshine,humid weather,and high temperature in the stage of wheat growth would result in decrease in wheat yield.The temperature increase and the trend of sunshine duration in hours and rainy days was stable in next one hundred years.But the direct effects of CO₂ would mitigate even compensate for the yield negative effects of climate warming in the studied region and results in decrease of growing session.The crop growth model has been applied to the simulated evaluation of climate change on crops. This paper has provided us a new method which researched for the climate change that effects on crop in the past.It is extremely helpful to the implementation and adjustment of agricultural policy.