The Effect Of Climate Change On Main Crops Production During The Last30Years In Jianghuai Region

Global warming is becoming increasingly serious, climate change is bound to cause agricultural production and the agricultural climate resources in time and space change, increased agricultural production is not stable, therefore, in the current climate change rate under the premise, how to objectively evaluate the climate warming on the agricultural production in the impact of climate resources in trend and utilization, analysis of such changes on crop planting system impact, to make reasonable cropping system and cultivation measures, proposed the feasible adaptive measures to mitigate climate change, in the region of agricultural production hazards.This paper collected the Jianghuai area from30meteorological stations in the1980～2009daily temperature, water and other meteorological data, using statistical analysis method and GIS interpolation analysis technology, focusing on analysis of1980-2009years in Jianghuai area and crop growth season of annual temperature and precipitation and other agricultural climate resources the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, rice, wheat, corn, rape of a temperature sensitive period of agricultural climate resources spatial temporal evolvement of rice and wheat, rice, oil, wheat maize cultivation mode the spatial-temporal evolution of. Based on the yield of rice and wheat in Jianghuai area for many years of statistical data and crop system data analysis, discussed region of Jianghuai rice wheat climate adaptability problems, and on this basis the crop planting system in response to climate change cultivation strategies. The main conclusions are as follows:1. In recent30years,annual average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature is wave type ascendant trend, warming rate were0.059℃/a,0.057℃/a,0.066℃/a; wheat growth and Ji Jun temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature in wave type ascendant trend, warming rate respectively is0.067℃/a,0.064℃/a,0.073℃/a; Ji Jun rice growth temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature in wave type ascendant trend, warming rate were0.045℃/a,0.043℃/a,0.054℃/a. From wheat, rice growing period, the lowest average temperature and the highest temperature increases the temperature increase was significantly higher than that in summer, winter, Nighttime Warming higher during the day. The spatial distribution of nearly30years, in the southeastern area of the average temperature increase was higher, while the northwest temperature increasing medium, overall from southeast to northwest temperature increasing amplitude gradually less. Nearly30years of average rainfall in Jianghuai area increases, increase rate of2.0mm/a. Space on the Huaibei region of precipitation increased obviously, the central regional precipitation variation is not obvious, the southern precipitation showed a decreasing trend; winter rainfall rate higher than the summer2. Climate change makes agricultural production increased instability, yield increase. This study found that the area of rice and wheat historical yield increasing continuously, and not because of climate warming and output falls. The present study in the region of30years of wheat, rice, rapeseed and wheat yield is fluctuant trend. Rice, wheat, corn, rape history yield increasing continuously, and not because of climate warming and production decline, crop production systems show some adaptive properties. The pattern of the anniversary production steadily rising trend, the inter-annual fluctuation. Using panel data analysis method to remove the effect of these factors, the results show that:the highest temperature impact on crop yield are mostly positive, with the highest temperature rising yield also rises; and the lowest temperature in winter crop yield is mostly negative, with the lowest temperature rise and output by a certain inhibitory effect of; average temperature impact on crop yield significant regional differences, Jiangsu for the negative influence, Anhui for the positive impact on crop yield; Rainfall effect on crop yield effect is not big, but show negative effects.3. In the region of Anhui, Jiangsu the actual change pattern of multiple cropping index exists certain differences. Which Jiangsu multiple cropping index from192%in1980, down to160%in2009; the Anhui multiple cropping index increased from186%in1988to217%in2009, increase. Multiple cropping index may be associated with the level of economic development is inversely proportional. Rice and wheat from spatial distribution pattern, north than in South area. In recent years, economy relatively develop area of rice and wheat farming mode area decreased, such changes may be related to the local economic development level have a certain relationship. Rice and rape patterns are mainly distributed in the southern region, distributed in the southern area of Anhui is larger, time change; as time increases, rice oil model there is an increasing trend in. Wheat maize model are mainly distributed in Jianghuai region of northin in northwestern, its distribution and the distribution of rainfall has certain correlation.4. According to the characteristics of Jianghuai area climate warming, raised from the appropriate adjustment of crop planting scope and mode, adjust seeding time, correct selection of crop varieties, scientific introduction, construction of irrigation and water conservancy facilities, water saving irrigation and inorganic fertilizer organic fertilizer, increase soil organic matter, soil environment improvement and so on, to resolve the current climate warming in Jianghuai area the adverse effects of measures.