Study On Hippotiscusdorsalis (Stal.) Early-warning Model In Zhejiang Yuhang District

Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) occurred in the bamboo in recent years, an important new pest of sudden, mainly on Phyllostachys Pubescens,Phyllostachys angusta and so on .The effective control measures included:Natural controlling,artificial hunting,fungicide controlling and so on.At present, Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) in Zhe jiang province and the whole of China was gradually serious, therefore, the disease of Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.), as well as accurate forecasts on the basis of the corresponding early-warning mechanism was a mechanism to prevent Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) cutting-edge researched and key scientific issues. The purpose of this paper was to examine Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) effective way to predict, and builded the early warning model.In this study, the damage condition of Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) in 2001-2008 of Zhe jiang Yuhang (the average small strain of pest, insect-infected bamboo at the rate of small classes) and the month of January to December of average monthly temperature, average monthly precipitation, monthly mean relative humidity, monthly average evaporation the volume of meteorological data, the use of SAS software for correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis ,the impact of the main eteorological factors, the results were obtained as follows:1. Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) was affected by the average temperature of August (X21) with the leading factor. the average temperature of August (X21), the monthly mean temperature of February (X15), their parameter estimates values were -35.59678,3.88038 , and in August the average temperature was negative, and the extent of Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) against negative correlation, namely, the average temperature of August on the higher, the smaller the damage, the average temperature in August on the lower, the greater of the damage; February Average temperature and Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) harmful bugs were related, that was , the average temperature in February on the higher, the greater of the damage, in February the average temperature on the lower, less harmful; And in August the average temperature (X21) the estimated value of the parameters of the largest in absolute terms that the average temperature in August was on the impact of the extent of Hippotiscus dorsalis (Stal.) against the leading factor;2. Relative humidity affect the extent of Hippotiscus dorsalis(Stal.) of factors, in October the average relative humidity (X35) to the small average strain Population (Y) value of the parameter estimation was -15.85940, Pentatomidae and the degree of Hippotiscus dorsalis was negative correlation;3. Precipitation that affect the extent of Hippotiscus dorsalis factors, and the average precipitation of November (X11) to the small average strain Population (Y) value of the parameter estimation was -1.17289, negatively correlated with the degree of Hippotiscus dorsalis;4. Accoding with the monthly mean temperature of August (X21),the average monthly relative humidity of October (X35),an average temperature of February (X15),the average monthly precipitation of November (X11), and on behalf of its small average strain of the pest insect population (Y) ,obtained by stepwise regression of the multiple regression prediction model, namely: Y=2186.11356-35.59678X21-15.85940X35+3.88038X15-1.17289 X11.