The Drought Risk Evaluation Of Liaoning Province

With fast development of economy, the requirement of water is increasing, the conflict between need and supply of water is more and more keen-edged, water shortness of agriculture is increasingly outstanding, droughty threat is aggravated. There are many features of drought such as non-determinacy, low developing speed, long duration, in vast area, heavy loss, and so on. The frequent and long-term sustainability of drought brought enormous losses to the national economy of China, particularly in agriculture production. Liaoning province is an important commodity grain base of China. Rain is the main source for agricultural irrigation in Liaoning. Because of the non-uniform distribution of precipitation in the spatial and temporal of Liaoning province, Liaoning province becomes a place where drought happen frequency. Drought has the enormous impacted to agricultural production of Liaoning province.Analysis on drought risk is the important basis for preventing and anti-drought. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the risk of drought in agricultural. Because of influence about the randomness, fuzzy uncertainties and other factors of the drought, the results of the risk assessment of agricultural drought are not very satisfactory by using the traditional methods of probability and statistics. The information diffusion can be a very good sense of the expression of imprecise fuzzy probability, solve the problems above, therefore, the information diffusion is one of the effective model to evaluate the risk of drought. In this paper we use the models of normal information diffusion and interior-outer-set bases on normal diffusion function to analysis the drought affected index of Liaoning province from 1949 to 2005, obtained the drought risk assessment of Liaoning province. The criterion is applied in the drought management of Liaoning province .By the criterion we can put forward a corresponding drought countermeasure. The drought risk evaluation can be obtained from comparation between the two models, which can be recognized as the feature of this paper. This research will increase drought risk consciousness, improve drought emergency responding ability, mitigate drought losing, provide the science support and advice for drought fight.